Economics of Planning

, Volume 11, Issue 1–2, pp 31–58 | Cite as

Plan sounding

  • Zsuzsa Dániel
  • Anna Jónás
  • János Kornai
  • Béla Martos


Gross Domestic Product Capital Good Fixed Capital Annual Average Growth Rate Capital Ratio 
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  1. 1.
    The research took place in the Institute for Economic Planning on commission from the National Planning Office. The following division of labour developed among the members of the work group completing the research:János Kornai worked out the first model outline serving as the starting off point for the work, and then coordinated and guided the work.Anna Jónás collected a significant part of the data, worked out the computer programme for the calculation, and directed the numerical calculations.Zsuzsa Dániel participated in the data collection and evaluation, and ensured the connection between our work and the topical prescriptions of perspective planning.Béla martos did the matheamtical work connected with the research. Distinction between the spheres of activities outlined here were not rigid and the research was collective in nature. Aside from those already listed, also participating wereJózsef Sivák (forecasting data, regression calculations).Ede Lovas (international data), andMrs. László Lackó (manual calculations). The computation was completed in the Computer Centre of the National Planning Office under the leadership ofAttila Fölsz.Google Scholar
  2. 1.
    Some other projects, including a large dynamic linear programming model for the period 1970–90, have shown that our main economic policy conclusions elaborated in this paper are realistic even when labor requirements are taken into account. In the next phase of our research, now in progress, we will include manpower balances into our model.Google Scholar
  3. 1.
    We would mention the works of Andrá Bródy, G. A. Feldman, B. Horvat, P. C. Mahalanobis, Jenő Rácz and György Szakolczay, from among our literary sources.Google Scholar
  4. 2.
    See the Appendix.Google Scholar
  5. 1.
    Our research group has theoretical reservations with this classification, and against the expression “infrastructure”. For the sake of comparisons with National Planning Office calculations we have put aside these reservations and have simply taken over the categorization.Google Scholar
  6. 1.
    János Kornai: Rush versus harmonic growth. North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1972.Google Scholar
  7. 1.
    In connection with the living standard, by consumption flow we mean the continuous consumption of commodities and services. By the infrastructural stock, meant to contrast it, we mean the part of the national wealth tied down in the infrastructural sectors, for instance the stock of housing, hospitals, personal means of transport, etc.Google Scholar
  8. 1.
    From this point of view we only required that the starting off data of the 31 paths coincide. We have 9 paths in which the initial data deviate. The reason for calculating these 9 paths was that there is statistical uncertainty regarding certain starting off data, or certain sectoral breakdown criteria are problematic. We wanted to complete a sensitivity analysis on the effects of these.Google Scholar
  9. 1.
    In our model we divided both industry and construction industry into two sectors apiece: investment and non-investment industry, and investment and non-investment construction.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© A.s. Joh. Nordahls Trykkeri 1971

Authors and Affiliations

  • Zsuzsa Dániel
    • 1
  • Anna Jónás
    • 1
  • János Kornai
    • 1
  • Béla Martos
    • 1
  1. 1.Institute of Economic PlanningNational Planning OfficeBudapestHungary

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