Secular trend of academician aging

Abstract

The time-course of average age of members of the Russian Academy of Sciences in the XVIII–XIX centuries was analyzed. A long-term trend of academician aging was found, with its extrapolation correctly predicting the average age of the recent academicians. Although the lifespan was increasing as well and its effect can statistically explain the most part (up to 80%) of variance in the average age, it was not the only cause. Furthermore, its effect might be indirect (i.e. the increasing average age was not simply due to a longer lifespan of elected members), since average membership span was slightly decreasing. At least a part of the trend was caused by a growth of competition for election since it was negatively correlaten with a contemporaneous number of members (at given lifespan and historical year). Comparison of three groups (full members, corresponding members and foreign members), differing in competition level, supports this suggestion. Besides the history of science, the results may be useful for dealing with the problem of growing age of the scientific establishment.