Estimated importance of seasonal adjustment on energy forecasts
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A short-term petroleum model has been estimated and forecast using alternative seasonality routines. Parameter estimates were generally plausible ona priori grounds across routines. Five of the seven routines produced similar forecasts even if the differences in the similar forecasts could be troublesome. A policy scenario was analyzed and a spectrum of results was forth-coming.
Much time, thought, and effort is often placed in estimating with deseasonalized data. This paper has shown the need to critically examine whatever seasonal routine is employed since seasonality sensitivity can overwhelm other effects. Forecasters have a justification for skepticism about “canned” seasonality routines. Seasonality has been shown to be important in terms of its impact on the final results; seasonality analysis should be examined and presented with as much care as the analysis of the deseasonalized data.
KeywordsParameter Estimate International Economic Public Finance Policy Scenario Seasonality Analysis
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