Summary and Conclusions
This paper has presented estimated time-series of retirement flows from the labor force for men and women aged 55–64 and 65 and over. These results are a useful addition to labor force participation rates as a means of studying secular trends of aggregate labor market behavior of older workers. Because retirement rates are independent of people who have not been in the labor force, they are better suited to secular studies of aggregate retirement behavior than are labor force participation rates.
These estimated time-series have been used to look for aggregate influences on the rates of retirement from the labor force over the period 1948–1977. While there are some tentative indications that macroeconomic conditions affect retirement flows, the important results concern the influence of Social Security retirement benefits. The results reported here clearly indicate that increased coverage and benefits have tended to increase retirement rates over the sample period. Elasticity estimates are large enough to suggest that the older labor force responds at a significant rate to changes in the Social Security program.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Richard Barfield and James Morgan,Early Retirement: The Decision and the Experience, Survey Research Center, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, 1969.
Michael Boskin, “Social Security and Retirement Decisions,” Economic Inquiry, January 1977, p. 1.
William Bowen and Aldrich Finegan,The Economics of Labor Force Participation, Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J., 1969
Colin Campbell and Rosemary Campbell, “Conflicting Views on the Effect of Old-Age and Survivors Insurance on Retirement,”Economic Inquiry, September 1976, p. 369.
Robert Clark and David Barker,Revising the Trend Toward Early Retirement, American Enterprise Institute, Washington, 1981.
Robert Clark, Juanita Kreps, and Joseph Spengler, “Economics of Aging: A Survey,”Journal of Economic Literature, September 1978, p. 919.
Robert Clark and Ann McDermed, “Inflation, Pension Benefits, and Retirement,” processed, North Carolina State University, 1979.
Council of Economic Advisors,Economic Report of the President, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., various years.
Lenore Epstein and Janet Murray,The Aged Population of the United States, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1967.
Martin Feldstein, “Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation,”Journal of Political Economy, September/October 1974, p. 905.
Clarence Long,The Labor Force Under Changing Income and Employment, Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J., 1973.
Donald O. Parsons, “The Decline in Male Labor Force Participation,”Journal of Political Economy, February 1980, p. 117.
Joseph Quinn, “Microeconomic Determinants of Early Retirement: A Cross-Sectional View of White Married Men,”The Journal of Human Resources, Summer 1977, p. 329.
Social Security Administration,Social Security Bulletin, Annual Statistical Supplement, various years.
Peter Steiner, and Robert Dorfman,The Economic Status of the Aged, University of California Press, California, 1959.
U.S. Bureau of the Census,Current Population Reports, Series P-25, Numbers 519,721, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1973, 1978.
U.S. Bureau of the Census,Historical Statistics of the United States, Part I, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1975.
U.S. Bureau of the Census,Statistical Abstract of the United States, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1980.
U.S. Department of Labor,Employment and Training Report of the President, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., various years.
W. K. Viscusi and R. Zeckhauser,Welfare of the Elderly, unpublished manuscript, Harvard University, 1975.
Michael Wachter, “Intermediate Swings in Labor-Force Participation,”Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2: 1977, p. 545.
Edna Wentworth,Employment after Retirement, U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Social Security Administration, Office of Research and Statistics, Research Report 21, 1968.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Additional information
This research was supported by Social Security Administration Grant No. 10-P-90543-4-02. The author is indebted to Robert Clark and Paul Johnson for support and criticism. Steve Gohmann provided greatly appreciated research assistance.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Lapp, J.S. The secular behavior of aggregate retirement flows. Atlantic Economic Journal 14, 30–38 (1986). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02303508
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02303508