Atlantic Economic Journal

, Volume 25, Issue 1, pp 60–79 | Cite as

Is there a business cycle in Singapore? Is there a Singaporean business cycle?

  • Francisco D. A. Nadal de Simone
  • Jose L. Tongzon
Articles

Abstract

This paper explores the existence and examines the characteristics, if any, of business cycles in Singapore. Specifically, the authors ask: Is there a business cycle in Singapore? Is there a Singaporean business cycle? Unlike earlier studies, this paper investigates whether or not there exists a business cycle in Singapore and employs cross-spectral analysis and factor analysis which have advantages over the time-domain techniques. The study shows that there is a business cycle in Singapore and its frequency does not coincide with the periodicity of the two recessions experienced by the country. However, the business cycle is not in any meaningful way Singaporean, as evidenced by the existence of three international factors explaining about 99 percent of the common variance of the series. The idiosyncratic factor is well below 1 percent in all Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries with the exception of the Philippines. The findings have a number of significant implications both from the theoretical and policymaking viewpoint.

Keywords

International Economic Business Cycle Public Finance Common Variance Significant Implication 

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Copyright information

© International Atlantic Economic Society 1997

Authors and Affiliations

  • Francisco D. A. Nadal de Simone
    • 1
  • Jose L. Tongzon
    • 2
  1. 1.Reserve Bank of New ZealandNew Zealand
  2. 2.National University of SingaporeSingapore

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