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Forecasting crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels

International Advances in Economic Research volume 8, pages 324–333 (2002)Cite this article

Abstract

This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels. Theoretically, petroleum inventory levels are a measure of the balance, or imbalance, between petroleum production and demand, and thus provide a good market barometer of crude oil price change. Based on an understanding of petroleum market fundamentals and observed market behavior during the post-Gulf War period, the model was developed with the objectives of being both simple and practical, with required data readily available. As a result, the model is useful to industry and government decision-makers in forecasting price and investigating the impacts of changes on price, should inventories, production, imports, or demand change.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. St. Mary's College of Maryland, U.S.A.

    Michael Ye

  2. Department of Energy, U.S.A.

    John Zyren & Joanne Shore

Authors
  1. Michael Ye
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  2. John Zyren
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  3. Joanne Shore
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Additional information

This work is partially sponsored by the Office of Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Department of Energy, USA, and was presented at the International Atlantic Economic Conference, Athens, Greece, March 2001.

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Ye, M., Zyren, J. & Shore, J. Forecasting crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels. International Advances in Economic Research 8, 324–333 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02295507

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02295507

Keywords

  • Price Change
  • Petroleum Production
  • Market Behavior
  • Forecast Price
  • Demand Change

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