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An empirical evaluation of earth’s surface air temperature response to radiative forcing, including feedback, as applied to the CO2-climate problem

Eine empirische Auswertung des Ansprechens der Lufttemperatur in Bodennähe auf Strahlungseinflüsse unter Einbeziehung von Rückkopplungsprozessen im Hinblick auf das CO2-Klima-Problem

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Summary

Several natural experiments are analyzed to yield equilibrium values of a surface air temperature response function and a feedback factor for Earth’s atmosphere. The former parameter, the change in surface air temperature induced by a change in radiant energy absorbed at the surface, is demonstrated to have a value of about 0.1 K (Wm−2)−1; while the latter parameter, the ratio of feedback-induced change in radiant energy to the surface of the Earth divided by an initial or primary change in radiant energy to the Earth’s surface, is demonstrated to have a value of about 1.25. These two numbers imply that the maximum warming to be expected from a doubling of Earth’s atmospheric CO2 concentration from 300 to 600 ppm is only about 0.1 K, a result so small as to possibly be completely counter-balanced by the CO2-induced reduction of solar radiation transmission to the Earth’s surface.

Zusammenfassung

Einige natürliche Experimente werden analysiert, um Gleichgewichtswerte einer Folgefunktion der Lufttemperatur in Bodennähe und eines Rückkopplungsfaktors für die Erdatmosphäre zu erhalten. Der erste der beiden Parameter beinhaltet die änderung der Bodenlufttemperatur, hervorgerufen durch eine Änderung in der an der Oberfläche absorbierten Strahlungsenergie, und besitzt eine Größenordnung von 0.1 K (Wm−2)−1. Der letztere der beiden Parameter beschreibt das Verhältnis zwischen den durch Rückkopplung erzeugten änderungen in der von der Erdoberfläche aufgefangenen Strahlungsenergie und den anfänglichen, oder primären, Änderungen in dieser Energie. Dieser Parameter besitzt eine Größenordnung von 1.25. Diese zwei Zahlen besagen, daß die Maximalerwärmung, die man von einer Verdopplung des CO2-Gehaltes der Erdatmosphäre von 300 auf 600 ppm erwarten kann, nur ungefähr 0.1 K beträgt. Dieser Wert ist so klein, daß er womöglich völlig durch die vom CO2 bewirkte Reduktion der zur Erdoberfläche durchgelassenen Sonnenstrahlung aufgehoben wird.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Water Conservation Laboratory, 4331 East Broadway Road, Phoenix, 85040, AZ, USA

    S. B. Idso

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Contribution from Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.

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Idso, S.B. An empirical evaluation of earth’s surface air temperature response to radiative forcing, including feedback, as applied to the CO2-climate problem. Arch. Met. Geoph. Biocl., Ser. B 34, 1–19 (1984). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02275671

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