Summary
Modified Palmer drought indices for six district areas, two each from arid, semi-arid and dry subhumid climatic regions of tropical India, have been examined for the fluctuations of drought indices series covering a period of 70 years (1901–1970). Power spectrum analysis of the drought indices series revealed statistically significant quasi-periodicities of 3.3, 6.6, 10 and 20 years with regional preferences. The first two of these periods are close to the two modal peaks of the Southern Oscillation suggesting that the oscillations of the drought indices may be connected to the large-scale atmospheric pressure in the Indo-Pacific region. The other two periods 10 and 20 years are close to the 11-year sunspot cycle and the 22-year double sunspot cycle. The influences of solar activity and the Southern Oscillation on the Indian climate seem to be causal features for introducing these quasi-periodic cycles in drought indices fluctuations.
Zusammenfassung
Modifizierte Trockenheitsindizes nach Palmer wurden für sechs Gebiete im tropischen Indien, je zwei mit aridem, mit semiaridem und mit subhumidem Klima, auf Schwankungen in den eine Periode von 70 Jahren (1901–1970) umfassenden Reihen der Trockenheitsindizes untersucht. Die Spektralanalyse der Reihen der Trockenheitsindizes ergab statistisch signifikante Quasiperiodizitäten von 3,3, 6,6, 10 und 20 Jahren mit regionaler Bevorzugung. Die ersten zwei dieser Perioden liegen eng bei Spitzenwerten der Südlichen Oszillation und weisen darauf hin, daß die Schwankungen der Trockenheitsindizes mit der großräumigen Druckverteilung im indisch-pazifischen Raum verbunden sein dürften. Die anderen zwei Perioden von 10 und 20 Jahren sind dem 11jährigen Sonnenfleckenzyklus und dem 22jährigen Sonnenfleckenzyklus fast gleich. Der Einfluss der Sonnenaktivität und der Südlichen Oszillation scheinen die Haupteinflussfaktoren auf die Bildung der quasiperiodischen Schwankungen der Trockenheitsindizes zu sein.
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Bhalme, H.N., Jadhav, S.K. Major quasi-periodic fluctuations in the drought indices. Arch. Met. Geoph. Biocl., Ser. B 32, 309–317 (1983). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02273982
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02273982