Summary
Statistical models based on persistence and climatology are used to forecast tropical cyclone tracks off the northwest coast of Australia. A comparison based on the 1980–81 season shows that a first order least squares fit of the eight primary predictors has a higher level of statistical significance and comparable mean forecast errors to predictions based on higher order regression equations.
Zusammenfassung
Statistische auf Andauer und Klimatologie begründete Modelle werden zur Vorhersage der Bahnen tropischer Zyklonen von der Nordwestküste Australiens her angewendet. Ein auf die Zeit 1980–81 bezogener Vergleich zeigt, daß eine Anpassung erster Ordnung nach kleinsten Quadraten von acht primären Vorhersagegrössen eine hohe Stufe statistischer Signifikanz hat und vergleichbare mittlere Fehler bei Vorhersagen auf Grund von Regressionsgleichungen höherer Ordnung gibt.
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Lyons, T.J., Joyce, C.C. Statistical prediction of tropical cyclone motion in the northwest of Australia. Arch. Met. Geoph. Biocl., Ser. B 32, 201–218 (1983). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02273974
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02273974