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Northern hemisphere temperature statistics and forcing part B: 1579–1980 AD

Nordhemisphärische Temperatur: Statistik und Steuerung. Teil B: 1579–1980

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Summary

The study restricted in part A to the 1881–1980 interval is carried on for the northern hemisphere mean temperature yearly assessments 1579–1980. Some statistics of this series are presented, substantially subinterval moments and spectral estimates. The latter statistics include dynamic “maximum entropy” spectra for moving 50 year subintervals in terms of relative variance and variance confidence level contour lines.

The temperature variation forcing hypotheses considered imply first solar parameters: Sunspots, solar irradiation derived, solar diameter variations and variations of the solar system mass center in relation to the sun. Furthermore, the influence of volcanism is taken account for, where the stratospheric dust index (Lamb) and ice core measurements (Crête, Greenland) related are analysed. Finally the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) variations are implied (Mauna Loa measurements and backward extrapolations). A multiple linear correlation and regression analysis in respect to yearly and low-pass filtered data leads to signal to noise assessments, where the CO2 signal is outstanding, the volcanic signal is weak and the solar signal is uncertain.

Zusammenfassung

Die Studie, die im Teil A auf das Zeitintervall 1881–1980 beschränkt war, wird auf die jährlichen Schätzwerte der nordhemisphärischen Mitteltemperatur 1579–1980 ausgedehnt. Die im wesentlichen vorgestellten statistischen Charakteristika dieser Reihe sind die Momente von Teilintervallen und spektrale Abschätzungen. Diese beinhalten auch dynamische „Maximum-Entropie” — Spektren für übergreifende 50jährige Teilintervalle, und zwar in Form der relativen Varianz sowie Isoplethen der Varianz-Vertrauensgrenzen. Die betrachteten Hypothesen zur Steuerung der Temperaturschwankungen umfassen zunächst solare Parameter: Sonnenflecken, daraus abgeleitete Sonnenstrahlung, Sonnendurchmesser-Variationen und Variationen des Massenzentrums des Sonnensystems in Relation zur Sonne. Weiterhin wird der Vulkanismus mit Hilfe des betreffenden stratosphärischen Staubindex (Lamb) und Eisbohnnessungen (Crête, Grönland) erfaßt. Schließlich sind die Variationen des atmosphärischen Kohlendioxids (CO2) in die Analyse einbezogen (Messungen auf dem Mauna Loa und Rückwärtsextrapolationen). Eine multiple lineare Korrelations- und Regressionsanalyse, die auf Jahres- und tiefpaßgefilterten Daten beruht, führt zu Abschätzungen des Signal-Rausch-Verhältnisses. Dabei erweist sich das CO2-Signal als sehr deutlich, das vulkanische Signal als schwach und das solare Signal als unsicher.

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  1. Institut für Meteorologie und Geophysik der Universität Frankfurt, Feldbergstrasse 47, D-6000, Frankfurt am Main 1, Germany

    C. -D. Schönwiese

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Schönwiese, C.D. Northern hemisphere temperature statistics and forcing part B: 1579–1980 AD. Arch. Met. Geoph. Biocl., Ser. B 35, 155–178 (1984). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02263344

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