Nonrenewable Resources

, Volume 2, Issue 4, pp 325–330 | Cite as

A probabilistic model of petroleum discovery

  • J. David Fuller
  • F. Wang


We discuss a petroleum discovery model that greatly simplifies the approach initiated by Barouch and Kaufman (1976) in which exploration is viewed as a sampling without replacement process, and the probability of discovery of a pool is proportional to its size. Calculations that formerly required lengthy Monte Carlo simulations have been reduced to compact formulas.

Key words

Exploration Crude oil Natural gas 


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Copyright information

© Oxford University Press 1993

Authors and Affiliations

  • J. David Fuller
    • 1
  • F. Wang
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Management SciencesUniversity of WaterlooWaterlooCanada

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