Epidemic seasonal infertility — a hypothesis for the cause of seasonal variation of births

Abstract

A hypothesis is proposed to explain the seasonality of births and its variations, that some unrecognized epidemic infertile factors have existed seasonally. In that case, certain women born in a particular low birth rate season must be those who survived these infertile factors in very early stage of their fetal lives. Then in later years, when they become pregnant, they may possibly be immune or different in their susceptibility to these infertile factors. Therefore, mothers born in a particular low birth rate season would tend to bear babies more frequently in that season than the others. To examine this hypothesis, birth records in 1930 of two maternity hospitals in Tokyo were investigated. These years were chosen for a period when seasonality of birth was most prominent in Japan. First babies were excluded to eliminate disturbances by season of marriages and other possible non-biological factors. The results show that among 1038 mothers born in a low birthrate season, May–July, 245 (23.6%) had babies in May–July, while the other mothers had significantly less babies (19.0%, 819/4302, P<0.001) in the same season. This may imply that seasonality of birth may have been influenced by some immunogenic infertile factors epidemic in a particular season.