Journal of Quantitative Criminology

, Volume 11, Issue 3, pp 231–245 | Cite as

Unemployment and the dynamics of offender populations

  • Mark F. Collins
  • Don Weatherburn
Special Issue: Quatitative Research and Criminal Policy in Austrelia


This paper models the increase in the participation rate of criminal behavior as either the initiation rate or the career length of criminals changes in response to increases in unemployment. Even with large instantaneous increases in unemployment, the models show a very slow increase in the criminal participation rate, giving a possible explanation of the failure of many studies to demonstrate a link between unemployment and crime levels.

Key words

unemployment initiation rate career length Poisson model 


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Copyright information

© Plenum Publishing Corporation 1995

Authors and Affiliations

  • Mark F. Collins
    • 1
  • Don Weatherburn
    • 2
  1. 1.Department of MathematicsUniversity College, Australian Defence Force AcademyCanberraAustralia
  2. 2.NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and ResearchSydneyAustralia

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