Abstract
It is possible that climatic change may stimulate population movements as people turn to migration as one strategy of adaptation. This paper attempts to assess possible migration flows which may occur, in response to climatic shifts over the next thirty years, from small island states in the south-west Pacific ocean region to the United States, Australia and New Zealand. It is argued that the small island states appear vulnerable to climatic change, with low coral atolls being most at risk. Adverse impacts of climatic change will be one extra pressure on small island states, many of which are already struggling to cope with sustainable management of their natural resources and with the demands of their rapidly growing populations for education, housing and employment. The migration strategy is likely to entail significant medium-term health, psychological and social costs for some Pacific island migrants as they try to move or cope with life in western industrialised societies.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
ABC (1994).Lateline. Australian Broadcasting Commission, 1 August.
ABS (1994a).Australian demographic statistics. Catalogue No. 3101.0 March quarter 1994. Canberra: Australian Bureau of Statistics.
ABS (1994b).Australia's long-term unemployed: A statistical profile. Catalogue No. 6255.0. Canberra: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Government Publishing Service.
ABS (1994c).Population growth and distribution in Australia. Catalogue No. 2822.0. Canberra: Australian Bureau of Statistics.
AIDAB (1993).Migration to Australia from the South Pacific. Canberra: Australian International Development Assistance Bureau.
Anon. (1986). Reasons for leaving.Pacific Islands Monthly. 57 (7), 11–14.
Anon. (June 16, 1994). Spoon-fed days are over, islands told.The Advertiser, p.13.
Anon. (August 2, 1994). Economic mayday in the Pacific.The Australian, p.12.
ANZEC (1990).Towards a national greenhouse strategy for Australia. Canberra: Australian and New Zealand Environment Council.
Barkan, E.R. (1992).Asian and Pacific Islander migration to the United States, Westport, Connecticut: Contributions in Ethnic Studies,30, Greenwood Press.
Beaglehole, R., Salmond, C.E., Hooper, A., Huntsman, J., Stanhope, J.M., Cassell, J.C. & Prior, I.A.M. (1977). Blood pressure and social interaction in Tokelauan migrants in New Zealand.Journal of Chronic Diseases, 30(12), 803–812.
Bedford, R. (1990). Ethnicity, birthplace and nationality: Dimensions of cultural diversity.New Zealand Population Review, 16(2), 34–55.
Betts, K. (1988).Ideology and immigration. Carlton, Victoria: Melbourne University Press.
Bird, E. (1987). The effects of a sea level rise on the world's coastline. InEnvironmental and health effects of atmospheric and associated climate change. Conference, Adelaide, South Australia.
Bilney, G. (1993). Opening Address.Ministerial Seminar on Population and Development in the Asia-Pacific Region. Canberra: Australian Academy of Science.
Blainey, G. (August 30, 1994). Melting pot on the boil.The Bulletin, pp.22–25.
Brookfield, H. (1990). Vulnerable places; vulnerable people: Human science approaches to problems of adaptation. In H. Brookfield, & L. Doube, L. (Eds).Global change: The human dimensions. Report on a symposium at the 59th ANZAAS Congress, Hobart, 1990. Canberra: Research School of Pacific Studies, Australian National University.
Callick, R. (1993). A doomsday scenario? In R.V. Cole, (Ed.).Pacific 2010: Challenging the future. Canberra: National Centre for Development Studies.
Carmichael, G., Buetow, S. & Farmer, R. (1993). Policy and data. In G.A. Carmichael, (Ed.).Trans-Tasman migration: Trends, causes and consequences. Canberra: Australian Government Publishing Service.
Chambers, A. (1986).Reproduction in Nanumea/(Tuvalu): An ethnography of fertility and birth. University of Auckland, Department of Anthropology Working Paper No. 72.
Cole, R. (1993). Foreword. In R.V. Cole, (Ed.).Pacific 2000: Challenging the future. Canberra: National Centre for Development Studies.
Connell, J. (1988).Sovereignty and survival: Island microstates in the Third World. Department of Geography, Monograph No. 2, University of Auckland.
Connell, J. & Lea, J. (1992). My country will not be there.Cities, 9, 295–310.
Döös, B.R. (1994). Environmental degradation, global food production, and risk for large-scale migrations.Ambio, 23 (2), 124–130.
Gannicott, K. (1993). Population, development and growth. In R.V. Cole, (Ed.).Pacific 2000: Challenging the future. Canberra: National Centre for Development Studies.
Garran, R. & Sexton, J. (June 18–19, 1994). Bolkus signals permanent brake on migration.Weekend Australian, p.1.
Glazer, N. (January 11, 1994). Golden door closes on the tired, huddled masses.The Australian, p.9.
Gleick, P.H. (1989). Climate change and international politics: Problems facing developing countries.Ambio, 18(6), 333–339.
Graves, P. (1980). Migration and climate.Journal of Regional Science, 20(2), 227–237.
Harrison, P. (1992).The Third Revolution. London: I.B. Tauris.
Harris, T. (September 2, 1994). Cash gap turns holiday capital into divided city.The Australian, p.5.
Hashimoto, M. & Nishioka, S. (1991). Potential impacts of climate change on human settlements; the energy, transport and industrial sectors; human health and air quality. In J. Jäger & H.L. Ferguson, (Eds).Climate change: Science, impacts and policy: Proceedings of the second world climate conference. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Hastings, P. (March 19, 1994). Door may open for rush from Pacific slums.Sydney Morning Herald, p.8.
Heft, R. (November 10, 1994). Californians back moves on immigration, crime.The Australian, p.7.
Heft, R. (November 12–13, 1994). Mexican flag a red rag for angry Californian voters.Weekend Australia, p.14.
Houghton, J.T., Jenkins, G.J. & Ephraums, J.J. (Eds) (1990).Climate change: The IPCC scientific assessment. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Hugo, G. (1984). The demographic impact of famine. In B. Currey & G. Hugo (Eds).Famine as a Geographical Phenomenon. Dordrecht: D. Reidel Publishing Co.
Hugo, G. (1989). Changing famine coping strategies under the impact of population pressure and urbanisation: The case of population mobility. Paper presented to theFirst Workshop of the International Geographical Union Study Group on Famine Research and Food Production Systems, Freiburg University.
Hugo, G. (1994). Introduction. In M. Wooden, R. Holton, G. Hugo, & J. Sloan,Australian immigration: A survey of the issues. Second edition. Canberra: Australian Government Publishing Service.
Jacobson, J.L. (1989). Environmental refugees: Nature's warning system.Populi, 16(1), 29–41.
Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade (1989).Australia's relations with the South Pacific. Canberra: Australian Government Publishing Service.
Jones, G.W. (1993). Population trends in the Asia-Pacific region.Ministerial Seminar on Population and Development in the Asia-Pacific Region. Canberra: Australian Academy of Science.
Joseph, J.G., Prior, I.A.M., Salmond, C.E. & Stanley, D.G. (1983). Elevation of systolic and diastolic blood pressure associated with migration: The Tokelau Island migrant Study.Journal of Chronic Diseases, 36(7), 507–516.
Kaplan, R.D. (1994). The coming anarchy.The Atlantic Monthly, 273(2), 44–76.
Kates, R.W. (1985). The interaction of climate and society. InClimate impact assessment. R.W. Kates, J.H. Ausubel, and M. Berberian, (Eds). New York: John Wiley and Sons.
Kennedy, P. (1993).Preparing for the Twenty-First Century. London: Harper Collins.
Knudson, K.E. (1977). Sydney Island, Titiana and Kamaleai: Southern Gilbertese in the Phoenix and Solomon Islands. In M.D. Lieber, (Ed.).Exiles and migrants in Oceania. Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press.
Kritz, M.M. (1990).Climate Change and Migration Adaptations. Working Paper Series 2.16, Cornell University.
Madhava Sarma, K. (1991). Adaptation Measures. In J. Jäger & H.L. Ferguson (Eds).Climate change: Science, impacts and policy: Proceedings of the second world climate conference. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Massey, D.S. (1994). The social and economic origins of immigration.The Social Contract, 4 (3), 183–185.
McGregor, G. (1990). Possible consequences of climatic warming in Papua New Guinea with implications for the tropical southwest Pacific area. In J.C. Pernetta & P.J. Hughes (Eds).Implications of expected climate changes in the South Pacific region: An overview. Nairobi, Kenya: United Nations Environment Program Regional Seas Reports and Studies No. 128.
McKnight, R.E. (1977). Commons in microcosm: The Movement of Southwest Islanders to Palau, Micronesia. In M.D. Lieber (Eds).Exiles and migrants in Oceania. Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press.
Miles, J. (October 1992). Blacks vs. Brown.The Atlantic, 270(4), 41–68.
Morgan Gallup Poll (1992). Finding No. 2263. Melbourne: Roy Morgan Research Centre Pty. Ltd.
NZ. Department of Statistics (1993).New Zealand Official Yearbook. Auckland: Department of Statistics.
O'Collins, M. (1990a). Carteret islanders at the Atolls resettlement scheme: A response to land loss and population growth. In J.C. Pernetta and P.J. Hughes (Eds).Implications of expected climate changes in the South Pacific region: An overview. Nairobi, Kenya: United Nations Environment Program Regional Seas Reports and Studies No. 128.
O'Collins, M. (1990b). Social and cultural impact: a changing Pacific? In J.C. Pernetta & P.J. Hughes (Eds).Implications of expected climate changes in the South Pacific region: An overview. Pernetta, J.C. and Hughes, P.J. (eds.). Nairobi, Kenya: United Nations Environment Program Regional Seas Reports and Studies No. 128.
Oliver-Smith, A. (1982). Here there is life: The social and cultural dynamics of successful resistance to resettlement in post disaster Peru. In A. Hansen & A. Oliver-Smith (Eds).Involuntary migration and resettlement: The problems and responses of dislocated people. Colorado: Westview Press, Boulder.
Pernetta, J.C. & Hughes, P.J. (Eds.) (1990).Implications of expected climate changes in the South Pacific region : An overview. Nairobi, Kenya: United Nations Environment Program Regional Seas Reports and Studies No. 128.
Prior, I. (1986). Immigrants and health: a selective review and suggestions for future research. In A.D. Trlin & P. Soonley (Eds).New Zealand and international migration. Palmerston North, New Zealand: Department of Sociology, Massey University.
Roy, P. & Connell, J. (1989). “Greenhouse”:The impact of sea level rise on low coral islands in the South Pacific. Research Institute for Australia and the Pacific, Occasional Paper No. 6, University of Sydney.
Satchell, T. (August 9, 1994). Crisis in paradise.The Advertiser p.13.
Schachter, J. & Althaus, P.G. (1982). Neighbourhood quality and climate as factors in US migration patterns 1974–76.American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 41(4), 387–400.
Schneider, S.H. (1989). The changing climate.Scientific American, September, 38–47.
Short, A.D. (1988). Areas of Australia's coast prone to sea-level inundation. In G.I. Pearman (Ed.).Greenhouse: Planning for climate change. East Melbourne, Victoria: CSIRO.
Short, R. (1994). Australia: A Full House.People and Place, 2(2), 1–5.
Smellie, P. (October 17, 1994). Fruitless Kiwis.The Australian, p.10.
Stewart, C. (August 3, 1994): Harsh words could help Pacific stay afloat.The Australian, p.9.
Svart, L.M. (1975). Environmental preference migration: A review.The Geographical Review, 65, 314–330.
Tate, M. (1991). Whose 100th Birthday? Australian Democracy and ‘Rerum Novarum’ 1891–1991. Occasional Paper No. 9. Adelaide: Australian Catholic Social Justice Council.
Tegart, W.J., McG., Sheldon, G.W. & Hellyer, J.H. (Eds) (1993).Climatic Change 1992: The supplementary report to the IPCC impacts assessment. Canberra: Australian Government Publishing Service.
Trlin, A.D. (1993). The social effects and institutional structure of immigration in New Zealand in the 1980s.Asian and Pacific Migration Journal. 2(1), 1–25.
Walker, R. (1994). New Zealand immigration and the political economy.The Social Contract, 4 (2), 86–97.
Whetton, P.H., Fowler, A.M., Haylock, M.R. & Pittock, A.B. (1993). Implications of climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on floods and droughts in Australia.Climatic Change, 25(3–4), 289–317.
Wigley, T.M.L. & Raper, S.C.B. (1992). Implications for climate and sea level of revised IPCC emissions scenarios.Nature, 357, 293–300.
World Resources Institute (1992).The 1992 Environmental Almanac. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Co.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Moore, E.J., Smith, J.W. Climatic change and migration from Oceania: Implications for Australia, New Zealand and the United States of America. Popul Environ 17, 105–122 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02208383
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02208383