High speed rail market projection: Survey design and analysis

Abstract

This paper summarises work done to assess the market potential and likely financial performance of a planned high-speed rail link connecting Sydney, Canberra and Melbourne, under a variety of scenarios concerning the services offered and the possible market responses of the competing transport modes in the corridor. In the Australian context, such a link has the characteristics of an essentially new transport mode since existing rail services are extremely poorly developed. The expectation was that generated demand could be a substantial part of the overall ridership. A programme of market research was commissioned by the private consortium considering the project, designed to support forecasting models capable of predicting both diverted and generated travel on the new service. A major survey of current travellers was conducted in 1988, followed by an extensive collection of stated preference evidence about the factors affecting the travel decisions of both existing travellers and those who had not recently made any journeys in the corridor. The paper focuses mainly on the design and organisation of the surveys, on the analysis approach, and on the methods used to generate forecasts for simulated populations and scenarios.