Abstract
Successful management and stewardship of environmental systems requires reliable assessment of their development dynamics in response to changing environmental and management conditions. Descriptive (statistical) models cannot cope with this challenge since their development is based on historical time series with little or no reference to actual system structure. On the other hand, explanatory (process) models attempt to capture the essential eco-physiological processes determining dynamic behavior, and they are therefore much better suited for the computation of development dynamics under changing conditions, even when long-term empirical observations are not possible or feasible. As an example of the use of process models in environmental systems analysis, a forest simulation model describing growth, and carbon and nitrogen dynamics of a single-species, even-aged forest stand under silvicultural management and pollution influences is presented, together with some representative simulation results. Steps in obtaining valid but compact tree models for complex forest simulations are outlined, and recent software developments (object-oriented programming) are assessed with respect to their potential for environmental systems analysis.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
G.I. Agren and B. Axelsson, PT — a tree growth model, in:Structure and Functions of Northern Coniferous Forests — An Ecosystem Study, ed. T. Persson, Ecol. Bull. (Stockholm) 32(1980)525–536.
H. Bossel, Dynamics of forest dieback: Systems analysis and simulation, Ecol. Mod. 34(1986)259–288.
H. Bossel, Ecodynamics as a function of ecosystem structure: Forest dieback as an example, in:Ecodynamics — Contributions to Theoretical Ecology, ed. W. Wolff, C.J. Soeder and F.R. Drepper (Springer, Berlin, 1988) pp. 244–257.
H. Bossel, Modelling forest dynamics: Moving from description to explanation, Forest Ecol. Manag. 42(1991)129–142.
H. Bossel,Modellbildung und Simulation (Vieweg Verlag, Braunschweig/Wiesbaden, 1992/1994), with diskette.
H. Bossel,Modeling and Simulation (A.K. Peters, Wellesley, MA, 1994), with diskette.
H. Bossel and H. Krieger, Simulation model of natural tropical forest dynamics, Ecol. Mod. 59(1991)37–71.
H. Bossel and H. Krieger, Simulation of multi-species tropical forest dynamics using a vertically and horizontally structured model, Forest Ecol. Manag. 69(1994)123–144.
H. Bossel, H. Krieger, H. Schäfer and N. Trost, Simulation of forest stand dynamics, using real-structure process models, Forest Ecol. Manag. 42(1991)3–21.
H. Bossel and H. Schäfer, Generic simulation model of forest growth, carbon and nitrogen dynamics, Ecol. Mod. 48(1989)221–265.
H. Bossel, TREEDYN3 Forest Simulation Model: Mathematical model, program documentation, and simulation results, Berichte des Forschungszentrums Waldökosysteme, Reihe B, Bd. 35, Göttingen (1994).
E.F. Bruenig, The forest ecosystem — tropical and boreal, Ambio 16(1987)68–79.
J. France and J.H.M. Thornley,Mathematical Models in Agriculture (Butterworths, London, 1984).
M.R. Fulton, A computationally efficient forest succession model: Design and initial tests, Forest Ecol. Manag. 42(1991)23–34.
P. Hari, L. Kaipiainen, E. Kopilahti, A. Mäkelä, T. Nilson, P. Oker-Blom, J. Ross and R. Salminen, Structure, radiation and photosynthetic production in coniferous stands, Research Note No. 54, Department of Silviculture, University of Helsinki (1985).
G.E. Host, Causal models, empirical data, and a brief philosophy of science, IUFRO Newsletter no. 16 (S6.02.1) (1988) pp. 20–22.
S. Kellomäki and H. Väisänen, Application of a gap model for the simulation of forest ground vegetation in boreal conditions, Forest Ecol. Manag. 42(1991)35–47.
F. Klienast, FORECE — A forest succession model for southern central Europe, ORNL/TM-10575, Publ. No. 2980, Environ. Sci. Div., Oak Ridge National Laboratory (1987).
T. Kolström, Modelling early development of a planted pine stand: An application of object-oriented programming, Forest Ecol. Manag. 42(1991)63–77.
J.J. Landsberg,Physiological Ecology of Forest Production (Academic Press, London, 1986), in particular, chap. 8: Synthesis, pp. 165–178.
G. Lorenz, A. Uhrmacher, K.H. Simon and H. Bossel, Application of artificial intelligence methods to the representation and modelling of tree growth, in:Intelligence and Growth Models for Forest Management Decisions, ed. H.E, Burckhardt, H.M. Rauscher and K. Johann, Publ. No. FWS-1-89, Virginia Polytech. Inst. Sch. For. Wildl. Resour. (1989).
G.M.J. Mohren, Simulation of forest growth, applied to Douglas fir stands in The Netherlands, Ph.D. Thesis, Agricultural University, Wageningen (1987).
G.M.J. Mohren and F. Kienast,Modelling Forest Succession in Europe, Special issue of Forest Ecol. Manag. 42(1991).
R. Muetzelfeldt et al., A specification for a framework for forest modelling, final document of a Workshop of European Forest Modellers, University of Edinburgh (1987).
R. Muetzelfeldt, D. Robertson, A. Bundy and M. Uschold, The use ofProlog for improving the rigour and accessibility of ecological modelling, Working paper, Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Edinburgh (1987).
R.A.A. Oldeman, Forest ecology for silvicultural design, 3 vols., Department of Silviculture and Forest Ecology, Agricultural University, Wageningen (1987).
F.W.T. Penning de Vries and H.H. van Laar (eds.),Simulation of Plant Growth and Crop Production (Pudoc Centre for Agricultural Publishing and Documentation, 1982).
M. Rauscher, Comparing empirical and explanatory models, IUFRO Newsletter no. 9 (S6.01.1) (1987).
M. Rauscher, Comparing empirical and explanatory models — revisited, IUFRO Newsletter no. 16 (S6.02.1) (1988) 15–18.
M.H. Rauscher and J.G. Isebrands, Using expert systems to model tree development, in:Proc. IUFRO Forest Simulation Systems Conf., University of California, Berkeley, ed. C. Wendell and J.S. Biging, Div. Agric. Nat. Resour. Bull. 1927, Univ. Calif., Berkeley (1988) pp. 129–138.
O. Richter,Simulation des Verhaltens ökologischer Systeme (VCH Weinheim, Germany, 1985).
S.W. Running and J.C. Coughlan, A general model of forest ecosystem processes for regional applications. I: Hydrologic balance, canopy gas exchange and primary production processes, Ecol. Mod. 42(1988)125–154.
H. Schäfer, H. Krieger and H. Bossel, Process-oriented models for simulation of growth dynamics of tropical natural and plantation trees, in:Tropical Forests in Transition, ed. J.G. Goldammer (Birkhäuser, Basel, 1992) pp. 191–224.
H.H. Shugart,Theory of Forest Dynamics (Springer, New York, 1984).
H.H. Shugart and S.W. Seagle, Modeling forest landscapes and the role of disturbances in ecosystems and communities, in:The Ecology of Natural Disturbance and Patch Dynamics, ed. S.T.A. Pickett and P.S. White (Academic Press, New York, 1985) pp. 353–368.
R. Sievänen, T.E. Burk and A.R. Ek, Construction of a stand growth model utilizing photosynthesis and respiration relationships in individual trees, Can. J. For. Res. 18(1988)1027–1035.
R. Sievänen, P. Hari, P.J. Orava and P. Pelkonen, A model for the effect of photosynthate allocation and soil nitrogen on plant growth, Ecol. Mod. 41(1988)55–65.
A.M. Solomon, Transient response of forests to CO2-induced climate change: Simulation modelling experiments in eastern North America, Oecologia (Berlin) 68(1986)567–579.
D.L. Urban, G.B. Bonan, T.M. Smith and H.H. Shugart, Spatial applications of gap models, Forest Ecol. Manag. 42(1991)95–110.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Bossel, H. Process models of environmental systems: Simulation of forest development dynamics as an example. Ann Oper Res 54, 175–202 (1994). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02031733
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02031733