The evolon growth model: Possible scientometrical evaluations

Abstract

Based on a lot of data-analyses from different areas including also scientometrics (Mathematical publications) a new method for description of growth indicators in highly aggregated societal systems is proposed based on the sigmoid EVOLON growth model and its degenerated forms which together include most of the until now used growth curves in different fields. For these models simulation procedures are described which give us options for the parameter identification. Beside these possibilities closed analytical formulas are derived for all the parameters which make use of higher derivatives of the sequence of measured values of the considered growth indicator. With this possibility the identification problem is used for the construction of reliable estimators for derivatives up to some order from measured sequences of growth indicator values. At the end of paper a certain view is thrown on new possibilities for the construction of networks for coupled growth processes offerring also identification possibilities.