Scientometrics

, Volume 24, Issue 2, pp 237–280 | Cite as

The science-industry interface: Correlation of time series of indicators and their spectra, and growth models in the nuclear fuels industry

  • D. H. Hall
Article

Abstract

This paper is the third in a series on the flows of influence at the interface between geoscience research and the exploration for and mining of nuclear fuels. It deals with the application of signal processing methods to research and industry indicators, with emphasis on time and frequency domain correlations and lags, and on growth modelling of the indicators using the special and general logistic models. The findings include the following: there was a strong interchange across the science-industry interface; quantitative methods can establish the degree of correlation and the time periods in which these correlations mainly reside; also the timing of decisions to initiate exploration and research can be specified in this case. A strategy of applying quantitative methods, history of science, and periodic analyses of the state of the industry to studies of science policy is suggested by this research.

Keywords

Time Series Signal Processing Frequency Domain Growth Model Logistic Model 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Notes and references

  1. 1.
    D.H. Hall, The interface between geoscience and industry: a case study of the interaction between research and the discovery and mining of ores for nuclear fuels,Scientometrics, 11 (1987) 199–216.Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    D.H. Hall, Rate of growth of literature in geoscience from computerized databases,Scientometrics, 17 (1989) 15–38.Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    The printed publication has appeared as follows at various times during its lifetime: 1785–1928:—Geologic literature on North America. Geological Society of America; 1929–1970:—Bibliography of North American Geology. Geological Society of America; 1933–1968:—Bibliography and Index of Geology Exclusive of North America. Geological Society of America and American Geological Institute; 1969-Present:—Bibliography and Index of Geology. Geological Society of America and American Geological Institute.Google Scholar
  4. 4.
    Georef (Geological Reference File) comprises the contents of the publications listed in Note 3 as well as theBibliography and Index of Micropalaeontology (1972-present),Geophysical Abstracts (1966–71), andBibliography of Theses in Geology (1965–66). The types of literature contained in theGeoref database are: scientific articles in journals; government geological survey and research publications; and conference proceedings; monographs; theses; guidebooks; lexicons; maps; atlases; bibliographies; and annual reports.Google Scholar
  5. 5.
    See, The interface between geoscience and industry: a case study of the interaction between research and the discovery and mining of ores for nuclear fuels,Scientometrics, 11 (1987), pp. 203–204, 22D.A. Cranstone, R.T. Whillans, 1987. An analysis of uranium discovery in Canada, 1930–1983. Energy, Mines and Resources Canada. International Atomic Energy Agency Technical Committee Meeting on Uranium Resources and Geology of North America, Saskatoon, Sask. August 31–September 4, 1987. The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency. Uranium resources, production and demand, 1975 to present.Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    SeeS. James Press,Applied Multivariate Analysis, R.E. Krieger Pub. Co., Huntington, N.Y., 1982, pp. 64–67.Google Scholar
  7. 7.
    SeeJ.S. Bendat, A.G. Piersol,Random Data (Analysis and Measurement Procedures), 2nd ed., Wiley, New York, 1986, pp. 270–273.Google Scholar
  8. 8.
    SeeG.U. Yule,An Introduction to the Theory of Statistics, C. Griffin and Co. Ltd, London, 1937.Google Scholar
  9. 9.
    SeeA.V. Oppenheim, R.W. Shafer,Digital Signal Processing, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 1975, pp. 553–4 orM.G. Kendall, A.S. Stuart,The Advanced Theory of Statistics, Vol. 3, Design and Analysis, and Time Series, Hafner Publishing Co., New York, 1966, pp. 454–459.Google Scholar
  10. 10.
    These procedures are outlined byKendall andStuart and byOppenheim andShafer (note 9 SeeA.V. Oppenheim, R.W. Shafer,Digital Signal Processing, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 1975, pp. 553–4 orM.G. Kendall, A.S. Stuart,The Advanced Theory of Statistics, Vol. 3, Design and Analysis, and Time Series, Hafner Publishing Co., New York, 1966, pp. 454–459).Google Scholar
  11. 11.
    SeeE.R. Kanasewich,Time Sequence Analysis in Geophysics, 3rd ed., University of Alberta Press, Edmonton, 1981, pp. 132–137.Google Scholar
  12. 12.
    SeeA. Papoulis,The Fourier Integral and its Applications, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1962, pp. 252–3.Google Scholar
  13. 13.
    The correlation coefficient (c) ranges from 0 (uncorrelated) to +1 or −1 (perfect correlation or anticorrelation). For descriptive purposes the following ranges were adopted for c:0–.24, “uncorrelated”; 0.25–0.49, “poor”; 0.50–0.74, “good”; 0.75–1.00, “excellent”.Google Scholar
  14. 14.
    See the publication in, The interface between geoscience and industry: a case study of the interaction between research and the discovery and mining of ores for nuclear fuels,Scientometrics, 11 (1987), p. 204–206.Google Scholar
  15. 15.
    See the publication in, Fig. 1.Google Scholar
  16. 16.
    D. De Solla Price,Little Science, Big Science, Columbia University Press, 1963, 118 p. (Reprinted in Columbia Paperback Edition, 1965).Google Scholar
  17. 18.
    See the publication in, p. 209.Google Scholar
  18. 19.
    More elaborate methods, such as the maximum entropy method, can handle shorter data sets. See the publication in note 11 SeeE.R. Kanasewich,Time Sequence Analysis in Geophysics, 3rd ed., University of Alberta Press, Edmonton, 1981, pp. 142–176.Google Scholar
  19. 20.
    For coherence we will use the scale: above 0.7, “excellent correlation”; 0.5–0.7, “good correlation”; below 0.5, “poor correlation”.Google Scholar
  20. 21.
    See the publication in, pp. 203–204.Google Scholar
  21. 22.
    D.A. Cranstone, R.T. Whillans, 1987. An analysis of uranium discovery in Canada, 1930–1983. Energy, Mines and Resources Canada. International Atomic Energy Agency Technical Committee Meeting on Uranium Resources and Geology of North America, Saskatoon, Sask. August 31–September 4, 1987. The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency. Uranium resources, production and demand, 1975 to present.Google Scholar
  22. 23.
    See the publication in, Fig. 6, p. 204. AlsoM.B. Lieberman, United States uranium resources-an analysis of historical data,Science, 192 (1976) 431 found drilling to be a useful indicator of exploration expenditure.Google Scholar
  23. 24.
    See the publication in, Fig. 4.Google Scholar
  24. 25.
    See the reference in note 16D. De Solla Price,Little Science, Big Science, Columbia University Press, 1963, 118 p. (Reprinted in Columbia Paperback Edition, 1965), andH.T. Davis,The Theory of Econometrics, The Principia Press Inc., Bloomington, Indiana, p. 482.Google Scholar
  25. 26.
    The reference toDavis,, p. 212.Google Scholar
  26. 27.
    The reference toDavis,, p. 214.Google Scholar
  27. 28.
    C. Freeman, (Ed.),Long Waves in the World Economy, London; Frances Pinter, 1984.Google Scholar
  28. 29.
    these will be published in a forthcoming paper.Google Scholar
  29. 30.
    S.S. Kuznetz,Secular Movement in Production and Prices, Augustus M. Kelley Publishers, New York, 1967, p. 536.Google Scholar
  30. 31.
    See the references in, 30S.S. Kuznets,Secular Movement in Production and Prices, Augustus M. Kelley Publishers, New York, 1967, p. 536.Google Scholar
  31. 32.
    The reference toDavis,, p. 213.Google Scholar
  32. 33.
    The reference toDavis,, p. 215.Google Scholar
  33. 34.
    The reference toDavis,, p. 228, andR. Pearl,Studies in Human Biology, Williams & Wilkins Co., Waverly press, Baltimore, MD, U.S.A., 1924, pp. 605–606.Google Scholar
  34. 35.
    The referenc toPearl,, p. 575.Google Scholar
  35. 36.
    The production and exploration expenditure figures for uranium are by necessity confined to the portion of the world that reports production to international agencies. This probably covers 90 % of the total.Google Scholar
  36. 37.
    The publication in, p. 25.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Akadémiai Kiadó 1992

Authors and Affiliations

  • D. H. Hall
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Geological SciencesThe University of ManitobaWinnipegCanada

Personalised recommendations