Abstract
The sensitivity of an output variable of a model to changes of an input parameter value can be analyzed in various ways. Some methods of sensitivity analysis are described, and applied to a simulation model which has daily minimum and maximum temperatures (T min andT max, respectively), and daily global radiation as input parameters, and standardized relative multiplication rate ofErwinia amylovora in shoots in fruit-trees, averaged over a 24 hours' period, as output variable. Values of the input parameters were obtained from a weather station near Wageningen, the Netherlands, and refer to the second half of June, 1974–1988.
According to the model, the output variable was twice as sensitive toT max as toT min. Because of this difference in sensitivity, and because the standard deviation ofT max was larger than that ofT min, the variation of the output variable due toT max was three times larger than that due toT min. The sensitivity to daily global radiation was negligible when the soil was moist.
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Schouten, H.J. Multiplication of Erwinia amylovora in fruit-trees. 2. A simulation study on sensitivity to weather. Netherlands Journal of Plant Pathology 97, 193–202 (1991). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01989817
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01989817