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Are oil prices going to remain volatile?

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Abstract

For numerous planning problems in industrial but also in private management the expectation of future energy prices remains a crucial parameter. On the basis of a comprehensive demand/supply model for the world oil market, it is argued, that future oil prices are expected to remain volatile. Reasons for further oscillations are the recent price cut, a supply interruption but also economic incentives for an export cartel. In particular the last point provides a rational explanation of the historical evolution and contrasts the smooth paths derived to date to project future OPEC policies.

Zusammenfassung

Für zahlreiche Planungsprobleme sowohl privater Natur als auch für das industrielle Management ist die Erwartung zukünftiger Trends der Energiepreise ein wichtiger Parameter. Auf der Basis eines komprimierten Nachfrage/Angebotsmodelles des Weltölmarktes wird argumentiert, daß auch in Zukunft mit schwankenden Ölpreisen gerechnet werden muß. Die Gründe für weitere Oszillationen sind die kürzliche Preisreduktion, Angebotsunterbrechungen aber auch ökonomische Anreize für ein Exportkartell. Besonders dieser letzte Punkt ermöglicht eine Erklärung der historischen Entwicklung und kontrastiert die glatten Pfade, die bis jetzt zur Prognose zukünftiger OPEC-Politiken erzielt wurden.

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  1. Institut für Energiewirtschaft, Technische Universität Wien, Resselgasse 3/357, A-1040, Wien

    F. Wirl

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  1. F. Wirl
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Wirl, F. Are oil prices going to remain volatile?. Zeitschrift für Operations Research 29, B41–B63 (1985). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01919491

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01919491

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