Skip to main content
Log in

Cointegration and the PPP and the UIP hypotheses: An application to the Spanish integration in the EC

  • Published:
Open Economies Review Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to find some empirical evidence on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) in the Spanish case vis à vis the European Community for the period 1980–89. The main contribution of the paper is the aggregation of the variables corresponding to the countries that participate in the exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System. The results support the importance of the interest differential as an explanatory variable for the short-term adjustment to the PPP. The results follow from powerful estimation techniques, applied in the framework of a multivariate error-correction model using the maximum-likelihood procedure as developed by Johansen and Juselius (1992).

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abuaf, N. and P. Jorion (1990) “Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run”,The Journal of Finance 45, 157–174.

    Google Scholar 

  • Adler, M. and B. Lehmann (1983) “Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run”,The Journal of Finance 38, 1471–1487.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ardeni, P.G. and D. Lubian (1983) “Is There a Trend Reversion in Purchasing Power Parity?”European Economic Review 35, 1035–1055.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bekx, P. and G. Tullio (1989) “A Note on the European Monetary System and the Determination of the DM-dollar Exchange Rate”,Cahiers Économiques de Bruxelles 123, 329–343.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bilson, J.F.O. (1978) “The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Some Empirical Evidence”,Staff Papers 1, IMF.

  • Boero, G. and P. Burridge (1991) “A Simple Non-Parametric Test for a Unit Root”,Discussion Paper No. 91/10, Department of Economics, University of Nottingham.

  • Camarero, M. (1993) “Un análisis empirico de los modelos monetarios de tipo de cambio con variables europeas agregadas”, Ph.D. dissertation, Universidad de Valencia.

  • Camarero, M. and C. Tamarit (1995) “A Rationale for Macroeconomic Policy Coordination—Evidence Based on the Spanish Peseta”,European Journal of Political Economy 11, 65–82.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cumby, R.E. and M. Obstfeld (1988) “A Note on Exchange-Rate Expectations and Nominal Interest Differentials: A Test of the Fisher Hypothesis”,The Journal of Finance 36, 697–703.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dickey, D.A. and W.A. Fuller (1979). “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”,Journal of the American Statistical Association 74, 427–431.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dickey, D.A. and W.A. Fuller (1981). “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”,Econometrica 49, 1057–1072.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dornbusch, R. (1976). Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics”,Journal of Political Economy, 1161–1176.

  • Dornbusch, R. (1991) Purchasing Power Parity”, InExchange Rates and Inflation. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, pp. 265–292.

    Google Scholar 

  • Engle, R.F. and C.W.J. Granger (1987) “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”,Econometrica 55, 251–276.

    Google Scholar 

  • Eitrheim, O. (1990) “Testing Long-Run Relationships between Economic Time Series Using Likelihood-Based Inference on Cointegration”,Arbeids Notat 1990/5, Norges Bank.

  • Fisher, E. and J.Y. Park (1991) “Testing Purchasing Power Parity under the Null Hypothesis of Cointegration”,The Economic Journal 101, 1476–1484.

    Google Scholar 

  • Frankel, J.A. (1979) “On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rate Based on Real Interest Differentials”,The American Economic Review 610–621.

  • Frenkel, J.A. (1976) “A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence”,Scandinavian Journal of Economics 255–276.

  • Frenkel, J.A. (1981) “The Collapse of Purchasing Power Parities during the 1970s”,European Economic Review 16, 145–165.

    Google Scholar 

  • Frenkel, J.A. and H.G. Johnson (eds) (1978)The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments. London: Allen and Unwin.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hakkio, C.S. (1984) “A Re-examination of Purchasing Power Parity. A Multi-Country and Multi-Period Study”,Journal of International Economics 17, 265–277.

    Google Scholar 

  • Haldane, A.G. and M. Pradhan (1992a) “Real Interest Parity, Dynamic Convergence and the European Monetary System”,Working Paper Series 1992/1, Bank of England.

  • Haldane, A.G. and M. Pradhan (1992b) “Testing Real Interest Parity in the European Monetary System”,Working Paper Series 1992/2, Bank of England.

  • Johansen, S. (1988) “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors”,Journal of Dynamics and Control 12, 231–254.

    Google Scholar 

  • Johansen, S. and K. Juselius (1990) “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration—with Applications to the Demand for Money”,Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 52, 169–210.

    Google Scholar 

  • Johansen, S. and K. Juselius (1992) “Testing Structural Hypotheses in a Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK”,Journal of Econometrics 53, 211–244.

    Google Scholar 

  • Juselius, K. (1995) “Do Purchasing Power Parity and Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Hold in the Long Run? An Example of Likelihood Inference in a Multivariate Time-Series Model”,Journal of Econometrics 69, 211–240.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kim, Y. (1990) “Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run: A Cointegration Approach”,Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 22, 491–503.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kremers, J.J.M. and T.D. Lane (1992) “The Derivationof the Liquidity Ratio in the EMS: Reply to Arnold”,Comments in IMF Staff Papers 39, 203–207.

    Google Scholar 

  • Krugman, P. (1978) “Purchasing Power Parity and Exchange Rates. Another Look at the Evidence”,Journal of International Economics 8, 397–407.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kugler, P. (1990) “The Adjustment of Exchange Rates and Prices to PPP,”Prospects, no. 4, Swiss Bank Corporation.

  • MacDonald, R. (1991) “Long Run Purchasing Power Parity: Is It for Real?”Discussion Paper 1991/29, Department of Economics and Management, Dundee University.

  • McNown, R. and M.S. Wallace (1990) “Cointegration Tests of Purchasing Power Parity Among Four Industrial Countries: Results for Fixed and Flexible Rates”,Applied Economics 22, 1729–1737.

    Google Scholar 

  • Meese, R. and K. Rogoff (1983) “Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Seventies. Do They Fit Out of Sample?”Journal of International Economics 14, 3–24.

    Google Scholar 

  • Monticelli, C. and M.C. Strauss-Kahn (1991) “European Integration and the Demand for Broad Money,” Economic Unit of the Committee of Governors of EC Central Bank, mimeo.

  • Mundell, R. (1961) “A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas”,American Economic Review 51, 509–517.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ngama, Y.L. and S. Sosvilla-Rivero (1991) “An Empirical Examination of Absolute Purchasing Power Parity: Spain 1977–1988”,Revista Española de Economia 8, 285–311.

    Google Scholar 

  • Officer, L.H. (1976) “The Purchasing-Power-Parity Theory of Exchange Rates: A Review Article,IMF Staff Papers 36, 1–60.

    Google Scholar 

  • Osterwald-Lenum, M. (1992) “A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics”,Ox ford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 54, 461–472.

    Google Scholar 

  • Perron, P. (1990) “Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean”,Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 8, 153–162.

    Google Scholar 

  • Phillips, P.C.B. and P. Perron (1988) “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”,Biometrika 75, 335–346.

    Google Scholar 

  • Taylor, M.P. (1992) “Dollar-Sterling Exchange Rate in the 1920s: Purchasing Power Parity and the Norman Conquest of $4.86”,Applied Economics 24, 803–811.

    Google Scholar 

  • Taylor, M.P. and P.C. MacMahon (1988) “Long-run Purchasing Power Parity in the 1920s”,European Economic Review 32, 179–197.

    Google Scholar 

  • Trozano, M. (1992) “Long-run Purchasing Power Parity and Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: A Further Assessment”,Economia Internazionale 45, 77–100.

    Google Scholar 

  • Viñals, J. (1992) “Del control de cambios a la libre circulación de capitales.” In J. Viñals (ed),La economia española ante el Mercado Unico Europeo. Las claves del proceso de integración, 429–461. Alianza Editorial.

  • Whitt, J.A. (1992) “The Long-Run Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate: A Reconsideration”,Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 24, 72–82.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Camarero, M., Tamarit, C. Cointegration and the PPP and the UIP hypotheses: An application to the Spanish integration in the EC. Open Econ Rev 7, 61–76 (1996). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01886129

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01886129

Key words

JEL classification

Navigation