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Timing of hurricane emergency actions

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Abstract

Emergency actions to prepare for hurricanes often require more time than is available from official public warnings. This means that the preparedness official must decide not onlywhat to do butwhen to do it. The action decision system, described here, developed for use in the State of Florida, reformats the hurricane track forecast, a 72-h projection, prepared at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, to specify the probability of a strike at each of 12 vulnerable coastal communities, and then normalizes the value in terms of a composite of probabilities computed for historic hurricanes that struck the respective communities. The normalization, a ratio of the two probability values, current and historic, expressed as a percentage is defined as the level of risk. When this level reaches or exceeds 100% the risk level is defined as critical and the system recommends that emergency actions to prepare begin immediately.

The system is founded upon individual hurricane climatologies and decision procedures that are tailored for use at each community. The action recommendations generated by the risk analyses with a 93% level of confidence relieve the preparedness official of the need to make meteorological decisions in timing evacuations and other critical measures, even when these must begin before official hurricane warnings are received.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Simpson Weather Associates, Inc., 22902, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA

    Robert H. Simpson, Bruce Hayden & Michael Garstang

  2. University of Virginia, 22903, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA

    Harold L. Massie

Authors
  1. Robert H. Simpson
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  2. Bruce Hayden
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  3. Michael Garstang
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  4. Harold L. Massie
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Additional information

The work that provided the basis for this publication was supported by funding under a Cooperative Agreement with the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The substance and findings of the work are dedicated to the public. The authors are solely responsible for the accuracy of the statements and interpretations contained in the publication. Such interpretations do not necessarily reflect the views of the government.

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Simpson, R.H., Hayden, B., Garstang, M. et al. Timing of hurricane emergency actions. Environmental Management 9, 61–69 (1985). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01871445

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