Abstract
Intervention analysis is a rigorous statistical method for analyzing the effects of man-induced or natural changes on the environment. For instance, it may be necessary to determine whether a newly installed pollution control device significantly reduces the former mean level of a pollutant. By using intervention analysis, the actual change in the pollutant levels can be statistically determined. Previously, no comprehensive method was available to assess changes in the environment. Intervention analysis is an advanced type of Box-Jenkins model. A genpral description of Box-Jenkins models and their extensions is given. Also, the importance of adhering to sound modeling principles when fitting a stochastic model to a time series is emphasized. Following a discussion of intervention models, three applications of intervention analysis to environmental problems are given. Two applications deal with the environmental effects of man-made projects, while the third example demonstrates how a forest fire can affect the flow regime of a river.
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Hipel, K.W., Lettenmaier, D.P. & McLeod, A.I. Assessment of environmental impacts part one: Intervention analysis. Environmental Management 2, 529–535 (1978). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01866711
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01866711