Abstract
The ways to minimize the difficulties due to population and its growth to be found in current literature have been grouped under seven heads in a far from exhaustive listing:
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(1)
Apply the perspective of rates rather than absolute numbers.
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(2)
Annul the direct negative effects of population with surprising positive indirect effects.
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(3)
Show that neither land nor physical capital is important for development; only labour and human capital count.
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(4)
Exhibit past record of zero correlation between income increase and population increase.
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(5)
Calculate net externality of population increase, but underestimate the externalities falling on women and especially on later generations.
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(6)
Make models of the economy omitting the environment, i.e. implicitly assume the environment is infinite.
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(7)
When all else fails declare that population growth is not bad in itself, but that all evils are due to bad policies—economic, ecological, or urban. Marx thought population growth damaging only under capitalism; now population growth is said to be made innocuous by capitalism.
Résumé
Les moyens de minimiser les difficultés liées à la population et à sa croissance, que l'on trouve couramment dans la littérature, ont été regroupés sous sept rubriques, qui sont loin d'être exhaustives:
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(1)
Utiliser des taux plutôt que des nombres absolus.
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(2)
Annuler les effets négatifs directs de la croissance de la population, qui entraînent de surprenants effets positifs indirects.
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(3)
Montrer que ni les terres cultivables, ni le capital physique ne sont importants pour le développement: seul le travail et la capital humain comptent.
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(4)
Montrer que dans le passé on observait une corrélation nulle entre l'accroissement du revenu et celui de la population.
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(5)
Calculer les effets externes nets de l'accroissement de la population, mais sous-estimer les effets externes qui retombent sur les femmes en particulier des dernières générations.
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(6)
Mettre en place des modèles économiques qui omettent l'environnement, c'est-à-dire qui assument implicitement que l'environnement est infini.
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(7)
Quand tous les moyens précédents ont échoué, déclarer que la croissance de la population n'est pas mauvaise en soi, mais que tous les maux sont dus à de mauvaises politiques—économiques, écologiques ou urbaines. Marx pensait que la croissance de la population n'était nocive que sous le capitalisme; maintenant le capitalisme a rendu la croissance de la population inoffensive.
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Keyfitz, N. Seven ways of causing the less developed countries' population problem to disappear—in theory. Eur J Population 8, 149–167 (1992). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01797550
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01797550