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Desired and excess fertility in Europe and the United States: Indirect estimates from World Fertility Survey data

  • Charles A. Calhoun
Articles

Abstract

This paper presents indirect estimates of desired family size and unwanted births for married and cohabitating women in twelve European countries and the United States. An econometric model for censored discrete data is used to estimate the distribution of desired family size from individual observations on children ever born and total expected births. The data are from the UNECE Comparative Fertility Study of WFS surveys for Europe and the United States and originated in national surveys between April 1975 and December 1979. Estimates of the bivariate distribution of cumulative and desired fertility are used to compute the proportion of women with excess fertility and the average number of unwanted births for each country. The indirect estimates are compared with those from an analysis of survey responses to questions about desired and unwanted births. Multivariate models that control for the effects of marriage duration, age at marriage, education, employment status, work experience, and total family income are also reported.

Keywords

Indirect Estimate Bivariate Distribution Total Family Fertility Survey World Fertility 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Naissances désirées et non désirées en Europe et aux États-Unis: Estimations indirectes issues des données de l'Enquête Mondiale sur la Fécondité (en anglais)

Résumé

Cet article présente des estimations indirectes sur la dimension de famille désirée et sur les naissances non désirées par les femmes mariées ou cohabitantes de douze pays européens et des États-Unis. Un modèle économétrique, utilisant des données discrètes et tronquées, permet d'estimer la distribution de la dimension de famille désirée à partir des observations individuelles sur les enfants déjà nés et l'ensemble des naissances désirées. Les données sont issues de l'Enquête Mondiale sur la Fécondité réalisée en Europe et aux États-Unis d'avril 1975 à décembre 1979. Des estimation de la distribution bivariée de la descendance finale et de la descendande desirée sont utilisées pour calculer la proportion des femmes dont la descendance est plus élevée que la descendance désirée et le nombre moyen de naissances non désirées pour chaque pays. Ces estimations indirectes sont comparées avec celles issues d'une analyse des réponses sur les naissances désirées et non désirées. Des modèles multivariés qui permettent de prendre en compte les effets de la durée de mariage, de l'âge au mariage, du niveau d'éducation, de l'activité, de l'experience professionnelle et du revenu familial total, sont aussi présentés.

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Copyright information

© Elsevier Science Publishers B.V 1991

Authors and Affiliations

  • Charles A. Calhoun
    • 1
  1. 1.Federal National Mortgage AssociationWashington, DCUSA

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