Zusammenfassung
Für das Problem der Portfolioplanung wird unter der Voraussetzung konstanter absoluter Risikoaversion der erwartete Wert eines Informationssystems für den Fall bestimmt, daß die Renditen der riskanten Anlagemöglichkeiten sowohl a priori als auch a posteriori normalverteilt sind. Speziell wird die erwartungstreue, normalverteilte Schätzung von Einzel- und Indexrenditen und der Fall unvollständig bekannter a priori Daten behandelt. In allen betrachteten Fällen ist der erwartete Wert der Information proportional zum Informationsgehalt, wobei sich die absolute Risikoaversion als Proportionalitätsfaktor erweist.
Summary
For the problem of portfolio planning under the assumption of constant absolute risk aversion, the expected value of information is determined for the case that the prior as well as the posterior distributions of the rates of return of the risky assets are normal. In particular, the unbiased normally distributed estimation of the rates of return of the risky assets and of an index and the case of incomplete known prior data are treated. In all considered cases the expected value of information is proportional to the amount of information. Herein the absolute risk aversion is shown to be the factor of proportionality.
Literatur
Arrow KJ (1965) The theory of risk aversion. Reprinted and appendix added in Arrow (1970): Essays in the theory of risk-bearing. North-Holland, Amsterdam New York Oxford, pp 90–120
Bamberg G, Spremann K (1980) Implications of constant risk aversion. ZOR 25:205–224
Barry CB (1974) Portfolio analysis under uncertain means, variances and covariances. J Finance 29:515–522
Bawa VS, Brown SJ, Klein RW (1979) Estimation risk and optimal portfolio choice. North Holland, Amsterdam New York Oxford
Bühler W (1977) Portefeuilleplanung bei unvollkommen bekannten Mittelwerten und Varianzen. Proceedings in Operations Research 7. Physica, Würzburg Wien, pp 158–167
Dhrymes PJ (1978) Introductory econometrics. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg New York
Goel PK, DeGroot MH (1981) Information about hyperparameters in hierarchical models. JASA 76:140–147
Jobson JD, Korkie B (1980) Estimation for Markowitz efficient portfolios. JASA 75:544–554
Kalymon BA (1971) Estimation risk in the portfolio selection model. J Financial Quant Analysis 6:559–582
La Valle IH (1970) An introduction to probability, decision and inference. International Series in Decision Processes. Holt Rinehart Winston, New York
Lin WT (1981) A minimum bayes risk approach to optimal portfolio choice. Int J Systems Sci 12:495–509
Mao JC, Särndal CE (1966) A decision theory approach to portfolio selection. Manag Sci 12:B323–333
Ohlson JA (1975) The complete ordering of information alternatives for a class of portfolio-selection models. J Acc Res 13:267–282
Owen J, Rabinovitch R (1980) The cost of information and equilibrium in the capital asset market. J Financial Quant Analysis 15:497–508
Pratt JW (1964) Risk aversion in the small and in the large. Econometrica 32:122–136
Rabinovitch R, Owen J (1978) Nonhomogeneous expectations and information in the capital asset market. J Finance 33:575–587
Raiffa H, Schlaiffer R (1961) Applied statistical decision theory. Studies in Managerial Economics, Boston
Shannon CE, Weaver W (1949) The mathematical theory of communication. The University of Illinois Press
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Firchau, V. Der Wert von Renditeprognosen für Anlageentscheidungen. OR Spektrum 6, 167–176 (1984). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01719615
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01719615