Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

The potential effects of climate change on ecosystem processes and cattle production on U.S. rangelands

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

In spite of the uncertainties of potential climate change, a scientific consensus is emerging that increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 could alter global temperatures and precipitation patterns. Changes in global climate as predicted by General Circulation Models (GCM) could therefore, have profound implications for global agriculture. The objective of this study was to assess the impacts of potential climate change on livestock and grassland production in the major producing regions of the United States. Simulation sites were selected for the study on the basis of the region's economic dependence on rangeland livestock production. Five thirty-year simulations were conducted on each site using the Simulation of Production and Utilization of Rangelands model and Colorado Beef Cattle Production Model. Climate change files were obtained by combining historic weather data from each site with predicted output from three GCM's. Results from nominal runs were compared with the three climate change scenarios and a doubled CO2 run. The magnitude and direction of ecosystem response to climate change varied among the GCM's and by geographic region. Simulations demonstrated that changes in temperature and precipitation patterns caused an increase in above-ground net primary production for most sites. Increased decomposition rates were recorded for northern regions. Similarly, animal production in northern regions increased, implying an increase in economic survivability. However, because decreases in animal production indicators were recorded for the southern regions, economic survivability in southern regions is less certain.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Adams, R. M.: 1989, ‘Global Climate Change and Agriculture: An Economic Perspective’,Amer. J. Agric. Econ. 71, 1272–1279.

    Google Scholar 

  • Adams, R. M., Rosenzweig, C., Peart, R. M., Ritchie, J. T., McCarl, E. A., Glyer, J. D., Curry, R. B., Jones, J. W., Boote, K. J., and Allen, Jr., L. H.: 1990, ‘Global Climate Change in U.S. Agriculture’,Nature 345, 219–224.

    Google Scholar 

  • Arthur, L. M. and Abizadeh, F.: 1988, ‘Potential Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture in the Prairie Region of Canada’,Western J. Agric. Econ. 13, 216–224.

    Google Scholar 

  • Baker, B. B.: 1991, ‘A National Analysis of the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Rangeland Ecosystems’, Ph.D. Dissertation Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, 131 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Baker, B. B., Bourdon, R. M., and Hanson, J. D.: 1992, ‘FORAGE: A Simulation Model of Grazing Behavior for Beef Cattle’,Ecol. Mod. 60, 257–279.

    Google Scholar 

  • Baliunas, S.: 1990, ‘Letter: Global Warming Report’,Science 247, p. 15.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bergthorsson, P.: 1985, ‘Sensitivity of Icelandic Agriculture to Climatic Variations’,Clim. Change 7, 11–127.

    Google Scholar 

  • Boden, T. A., Kanciruk, P., and Farrell, M. P.: 1990,TRENDS' 90: A Compendium of Data on Global Change, ORNL/CDIAC-36, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, 286 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bourdon, R. M.: 1983, ‘Simulated Effects of Genotype and Management on Beef Production Efficiency’, Ph.D. Dissertation, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, 140 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cooley, K. R., Springer, E. P., and Huber, A. L.: 1983, ‘SPUR Hydrology Component: Snowmelt’, in Wight, J. R. (ed.),SPUR: Simulation of Production and Utilization of Rangelands, Documentation and User Guide, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Miscellaneous Publication No. 1431, pp. 45–61.

  • Crosson, P.: 1989, ‘Greenhouse Warming and Climate Change’,Food Policy 14, 107–118.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dickinson, R. E.: 1989, ‘Uncertainties of Estimates of Climatic Change: A Review’,Clim. Change 15, 5–13.

    Google Scholar 

  • Field, L. B.: 1987, ‘Simulation of Beef-Heifer Production on Rangeland’, Thesis, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, 89 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hansen, J., Russell, G., Rind, D., Stone, P., Lacis, A., Lebedeff, S., Ruedy, R., and Travis, L.: 1983, ‘Efficient Three-Dimensional Global Models for Climate Studies: Models I and II’,Mon. Wea. Rev. 3, 609–662.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hanson, J. D. and Skiles, J. W.: 1987, ‘Plant-Component Parameter Estimation’, in Wight, J. R. and Skiles, J. W. (eds.),SPUR: Simulation of Production and Utilization of Rangelands, Documentation and User Guide, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, ARS 63, pp. 240–259.

  • Hanson, J. D., Skiles, J. W., and Parton, W. J.: 1988, ‘A Multispecies Model for Rangeland Plant Communities’,Ecol. Mod. 44, 89–123.

    Google Scholar 

  • Harvey, L. D.: 1989, ‘Transient Climatic Response to an Increase of Greenhouse Gases’,Clim. Change 15, 15–30.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hunt, H. W., Trlica, M. J., Redente, E. F., Moore, J. C., Detling, J. K., Kittel, T. G. F., Walter, D. E., Fowler, M. C., Klein, D. A., and Elliott, E. T.: 1991, ‘Simulation Model for the Effects of Climate Change on Temperate Grassland Ecosystems’,Ecol. Mod. 53, 205–246.

    Google Scholar 

  • Idso, S. B.: 1989,Carbon Dioxide and Global Change: Earth in Transition, IBR Press, Tempe, Arizona, 292 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jastrow, R.: 1990, ‘Letter: Global Warming Report’,Science 247, p. 15.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keeling, C. D.: 1986, ‘Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations - Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, 1958–1986’, NDP-001/R1, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keeling, C. D., Carter, A. F., and Mook, W. G.: 1984, ‘Seasonal, Latitudinal, and Secular Variations in the Abundance and Isotopic Ratios of Atmospheric CO2,J. Geophys. Res. 89, 4615–4628.

    Google Scholar 

  • Laurmann, J. A.: 1986, ‘Scientific Uncertainty and Decision Making: The Case of Greenhouse Gases and Global Climate Change’,Sci. Total Environm. 55, 177–186.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lindzen, R. S.: 1990, ‘Letter: Global Warming Report’,Science 247, p. 14.

    Google Scholar 

  • Manabe, S. and Wetherald, R. T.: 1987, ‘Large-Scale Changes in Soil-Wetness Induced by an Increase in Carbon Dioxide’,J. Atmos. Sci. 44, 1211–1235.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mitchell, J. F. B., Manabe, S., Tokioka, T., and Meleshko, V.: 1990, ‘Equilibrium Climate Change’, in Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J., and Ephraums, J. J. (eds.),Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge University Press, New York, pp. 131–164.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mohnen, V. A., Goldstein, W., and Wang, W.-C.: 1991, ‘The Conflict over Global Warming: The Application of Scientific Research to Policy Choices’,Global Environm. Change 1, 109–123.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nierenberg, W. A.: 1990, ‘Letter: Global Warming Report’,Science 247, p. 14.

    Google Scholar 

  • Notter, D. R.: 1977, ‘Simulated Efficiency of Beef Production for a Cow-Calf Feedlot Management System’, Ph.D. Disseration, University of Nebraska, Lincoln.

    Google Scholar 

  • Oram, P. A.: 1985, ‘Sensitivity of Agricultural Production to Climatic Change’,Clim. Change 7, 129–152.

    Google Scholar 

  • Parry, M. L. and Carter, T. R.: 1985, ‘The Effect of Climatic Variations on Agricultural Risk’,Clim. Change 7, 95–110.

    Google Scholar 

  • Renard, K. G., Shirley, E. D., Williams, J. R., and Nicks, A. D.: 1983, ‘SPUR Hydrology Component, Upland Phases’, in Wight, J. R. (ed.),SPUR: Simulation of Production and Utilization of Rangelands, Documentation and User Guide, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Miscellaneous Publication No. 1431, pp. 17–44.

  • Richardson, C. W.: 1981, Stochastic Simulation of Daily Precipitation, Temperature, and Solar Radiation’,Water Resourc. Res. 17, 182–190.

    Google Scholar 

  • Richardson, C. W., Hanson, C. L, and Huber, A. L.: 1987, ‘Climate Generator’, in Wight, J. R. and Skiles, J. W. (eds.),SPUR: Simulation of Production and Utilization of Rangelands, Documentation and User Guide, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, ARS-63, pp. 3-16.

  • Roberts, L.: 1990, ‘Letter: Response to Letter on Global Warming Report’,Science 247, p. 16.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rosenberg, N. J.: 1988, ‘Global Climate Change Holds Problems and Uncertainties for Agriculture’, in Tutwiler, M. A. (ed.),U.S. Agriculture in a Global Setting: An Agenda for the Future, National Center for Food and Agricultural Policy, Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C., pp. 203–218.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rosenzweig, C.: 1985, ‘Potential CO2 Induced Climate Effects on North American Wheat Producing Regions’,Clim. Change 7, 367–389.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rosenzweig, C.: 1989, ‘Global Climate Change: Predictions and Observations’,Am. J. Agric. Econ. 71, 1265–1271.

    Google Scholar 

  • SAS Institute, Inc.: 1990,SAS/STAT User's Guide, Version 6, Fourth Edition, Volume 2, Cary, North Carolina, SAS Institute Inc., 846 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sanders, J. O. and Cartwright, T. C.: 1979, ‘A General Cattle Production Systems Model. I. Description of the Model’,Agric. Sys. 4, 217–227.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schimel, D. S., Parton, W. J., Kittel, T. G. F., Ojima, D. S., and Cole, C. V.: 1990, ‘Grassland Biogeochemistry: Links to Atmospheric Processes’,Clim. Change 17, 13–25.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schneider, S. H.: 1989, ‘The Greenhouse Effect: Science and Policy’,Science 243, 771–781.

    Google Scholar 

  • Singh, B. and Stewart, R. B.: 1991, ‘Potential Impacts of the CO2 Induced Climate Change Using the GISS Scenario on Agriculture in Quebec, Canada’,Agric. Ecosyst. Environm. 35, 327–347.

    Google Scholar 

  • Skiles, J. W., Hanson, J. D., and Parton, W. J.: 1983, ‘Simulation of Above- and Below-Ground Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics ofBouteloua gracilis andAgropyron smithii’, inThird International Conference on the State-of-the-Art in Ecological Modeling, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, May 24–28, 1982, pp. 467–473.

  • Smith, J. B. and Tirpak, D. (eds.), 1989,The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States, Report to Congress, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Policy, Planning and Evaluation (PM-221), Washington, D.C., 413 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Solow, A. R. and Broadus, J. M.: 1989, ‘On the Detection of Greenhouse Warming’,Clim. Change 15, 449–453.

    Google Scholar 

  • Springer, E. P. and Lane, L. J.: 1987, ‘Hydrology-Component Parameter Estimation’, in Wight, J. R. and Skiles, J. W. (eds.),SPUR: Simulation of Production and Utilization of Rangelands, Documentation and User Guide, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, ARS-63, pp. 260–275.

  • Springer, E. P., Johnson, C. W., Cooley, K. R., and Robertson, D. C.: 1984, ‘Testing the SPUR Hydrology Component on Rangeland Watersheds in Southwest Idaho’,Transact. Amer. Soc. Agricult. Engin. 27, 1040–1046, 1054.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stuiver, M.: 1990, ‘Letter, Global Warming Report’,Science 247, p. 16.

    Google Scholar 

  • USA-CERL.: 1988, ‘GRASS 3.0. Army Corps of Engineers Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (USA-CERL)’, Champaign, Illinois. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service: 1981, Land Resource Regions and Major Land Resource Areas of the United States', United States Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service, Agriculture Handbook 296, 156 pp.

  • U.S. Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service and Iowa State University Statistical Laboratory: 1982, ‘Basic Statistics: 1977 National Resources Inventory’,Stat. Bull. 686, Washington, D.C.

  • U.S. Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service and Iowa State University Statistical Laboratory: 1984, ‘National Resources Inventory: A Guide for Users of 1982 NRI Data Files’, Mimeo.

  • U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census: 1987, ‘Census of Agriculture 1987’, Washington, D.C.

  • U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis: 1987, ‘Local Area Personal Income 1969–1988’, Washington, D.C.

  • Watson, R. T., Rodhe, H., Oeschger, H., and Siegenthaler, U.: 1990, ‘Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols’, in Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J., Ephraums, J. J. (eds.),Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge University Press, New York, pp. 1–40.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wight, J. R. and Skiles, J. W. (eds.): 1987,SPUR: Simulation of Production and Utilization of Rangelands. Documentation and User Guide, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, ARS 63, 372 pp.

  • Wigley, T. M. L., Angell, J. K., and Jones, P. D.: 1985, ‘Analysis of the Temperature Record’, in MacCracken, M. C. and Luther, F. M. (eds.),Detecting the Climatic Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Research, DOE/ER-0235, Washington, D.C., pp. 55–90.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilson, C. A. and Mitchell, J. F. B.: 1987, ‘Simulated Climate and CO2 Induced Climate Change over Western Europe’,Clim. Change 10, 11–42.

    Google Scholar 

  • Woodwell, G. M.: 1989, ‘The Warming of the Industrialized Middle Latitudes 1985–2050: Causes and Consequences’,Clim. Change 15, 31–50.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. USDA-ARS, Great Plains Systems Research, 301 S. Howes, P.O. Box E, 80522, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA

    B. B. Baker & J. D. Hanson

  2. Department of Animal Sciences, Colorado State University, 80523, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA

    R. M. Bourdon

  3. Department of Agricultural Economics, Colorado State University, 80523, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA

    J. B. Eckert

  4. USDA-ARS, Great Plains Systems Research, 301 S. Howes, P.O. Box E, 80522, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA

    B. B. Baker

Authors
  1. B. B. Baker
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. J. D. Hanson
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. R. M. Bourdon
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. J. B. Eckert
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Baker, B.B., Hanson, J.D., Bourdon, R.M. et al. The potential effects of climate change on ecosystem processes and cattle production on U.S. rangelands. Climatic Change 25, 97–117 (1993). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01661200

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01661200

Keywords

Search

Navigation