Abstract
A systemic framework is presented for organizing knowledge about drought forecasting. It includes these topics: couplings among a descriptive drought model, monitoring system, and forecasting system; propagation of uncertainties; types of forecasts and attributes of performance such as the lead time and skill; sufficient measures of skill and economic value of forecasts; theoretical and operational limits of predictability; and the interface between forecasts and drought management decisions. Reviews of operational forecasts of the seasonal snowmelt runoff volumes and forecasts of the seasonal cyclone frequencies. temperature, and precipitation in the United States illustrate the methodological topics, outline the present limits of drought predictability, and suggest promising research paths. Among them are modeling of forecast uncertainties and their propagation from states of atmospheric circulation to states of a hydrologic regime, and exploring novel forms of the hydro-meteorologic coupling that would extend the lead time and/or increase the skill of long-range drought forecasts.
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Krzysztofowicz, R. Drought forecasting: Methodological topics from a systems perspective. Stochastic Hydrol Hydraul 5, 267–279 (1991). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01543135
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01543135