A prospective survey of the outcome of lumbar surgery was carried out under conditions where all intervention was according to routine procedures. Of a consecutive series of patients 132 cases (92%) could be evaluated. The aim was to investigate possible predictive factors among self-reported data and clinical data readily available under routine circumstances. Follow-up was for six months post-operatively. Surgical findings were: herniated disc (62%), ostechondrosis (21%), other pathology (7%), and negative findings (10%). Unsatisfactory outcome was either relapse, operation before follow-up (9%) or persisting pain (30%). The surgical finding of a disc herniation predicted a significantly better outcome than any other finding. Cases previously operated upon (20%) fared equal with those operated upon for the first time irrespective of surgical findings.
Self-reported weighting of preoperative pain and its location showed that predominant sciatica was significantly associated with the finding of a disc herniation, but also with satisfactory outcome irrespective of the operative finding. Factors without predictive value included sex, age, number of prior back surgeries, duration and impact of symptoms, and clinical findings. The social consequences were associated with the duration of low back disease.