Summary
To explain the decline in economic growth after the beginning of the 1970s, several authors have reverted to the theory of the 40- to 60-year-long Kondratieff cycle. This article concentrates on the empirical foundations of this cycle. After a critical survey of the important investigations by Kondratieff, Imbert and Van Duyn, the thesis of the long wave is subjected to a new test on the basis of time series of indicators of real economic growth in Great Britain, France, (West-) Germany, and the United States. The results of this investigation are clearly negative with respect to the existence of a long wave in real variables in these countries.
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I wish to thank W. Driehuis and H.A.A.M. Thoben for their comments on an earlier draft of this article.
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Van Ewijk, C. The long wave — a real phenomenon?. De Economist 129, 324–372 (1981). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01371746
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01371746