We show that if decision makers may have stakes in certain events then the experimental elicitation of their subjective probabilities of these events is impossible.
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We thank Eyal Sulganik for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper.
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Karni, E., Safra, Z. The impossibility of experimental elicitation of subjective probabilities. Theor Decis 38, 313–320 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01362238
- Subjective probability
- elicitation of probabilities
- experimental economics
- state-dependent utility