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The impossibility of experimental elicitation of subjective probabilities


We show that if decision makers may have stakes in certain events then the experimental elicitation of their subjective probabilities of these events is impossible.

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We thank Eyal Sulganik for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper.

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Karni, E., Safra, Z. The impossibility of experimental elicitation of subjective probabilities. Theor Decis 38, 313–320 (1995).

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  • Subjective probability
  • elicitation of probabilities
  • experimental economics
  • state-dependent utility