Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

The design of computer simulation experiments with an econometric model of a regional economy: The state of Colorado

  • Published:
The Annals of Regional Science Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper presents an annual econometric model of the Colorado economy and reports on the results of simulations through 1981 of the economic impacts which selected exogenous state and national economic policies may have on the state economy. Specification of the model's demand-oriented equations was guided by the a priori economic base information derived from the Colorado State University input-output model of the Colorado economy. The block recursive 180 equation model is linked to the Wharton Annual Model of the U.S. economy. Elasticity analysis indicates that the Colorado economy will (1) grow more rapidly than the national economy through 1981 and be less cyclically volatile, (2) be strongly affected by an agricultural drought or a boom in the state's coal industry, and (3) be virtually unaffected by a 50 percent reduction in the state's active duty military industry. Although the state of Colorado was selected as the focus of this paper, the methodology was developed with sufficient generality to encourage application to any regional economy.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Adams, F. Gerard, Carl G. Brooking, and Norman J. Glickman. “On the Specification and Simulation of a Regional Econometric Model: A Model of Mississippi.”Discussion Paper #266, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, 1974.

    Google Scholar 

  2. Chen, Dean. “A Tabular Survey of Selected Regional Econometric Models.”Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory and Econometrics, No. 11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, July, 1972.

  3. Eckstein, Otto, Edward W. Green, and Allen Sinap. “The Data Resources Model: Uses, Structure, and Analysis of the U.S. Economy.”International Economic Review, Vol. 15, No. 3 (October 1974), pp. 595–615.

    Google Scholar 

  4. Glickman, Norman J.Econometric Analysis of Regional Systems. New York: Academic Press, 1977.

    Google Scholar 

  5. Glickman, Norman J. “Son of ‘The Specification of Regional Econometric Models.’”Papers of the Regional Science Association, Vol. 32 (1974), pp. 155–177.

    Google Scholar 

  6. Gray, S. Lee, and John R. McKean.An Econometric Analysis of Water Use in Colorado's Economy. Completion Report Series, No. 70. Fort Collins, Colorado: Colorado State University, 1975.

    Google Scholar 

  7. Grimes, Ray A.A Satellite Econometric Model for Georgia, mimeo, School of Business, University of Georgia, Athens, 1973.

    Google Scholar 

  8. Harvard Institute of Economic Research.TSP: Time Series Processor. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University, December, 1974.

    Google Scholar 

  9. Holt, Charles C.Program Simulate II: A User's and Programmer's Manual. Madison, Wisconsin: University of Wisconsin, Social Systems Research Institute, April, 1967.

    Google Scholar 

  10. Kendrick, John W., and C. Milton Jaycox. “The Concept and Estimation of Gross State Product.”Southern Economic Journal, Vol. 32, No. 2 (October 1965), pp. 153–168.

    Google Scholar 

  11. Klein, Lawrence R.An Essay on the Theory of Economic Prediction. Chicago: Markham Publishing Company, 1971.

    Google Scholar 

  12. Klein, Lawrence R.A Textbook of Econometrics. Second edition; Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1974.

    Google Scholar 

  13. Naylor, Thomas H.Computer Simulation Experiments with Models of Economic Systems. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1971.

    Google Scholar 

  14. Robb, Edward H.A Quarterly Econometric Model of Michigan. Ph.D. thesis (Michigan State, 1971).

  15. Rubida, Kirk W.An Econometric Model of the Colorado Economy. Ph.D. thesis (University of Colorado, 1977).

  16. Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates, Inc.Memorandum, mimeo. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, July 20, 1976.

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Office of Economic Research, Central Intelligence Agency, Washington D.C.

    Kirk W. Rubida (Economist)

Authors
  1. Kirk W. Rubida
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Additional information

This paper is based on the author's doctoral dissertation which has been accepted by the University of Colorado and which was completed prior to the author's current employment. The author would like to thank Professors Robert McNown and Larry Singell of the University of Colorado for their guidance and encouragement and Professor Lawrence Klein of the University of Pennsylvania for making the Colorado-Wharton linkage possible.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Rubida, K.W. The design of computer simulation experiments with an econometric model of a regional economy: The state of Colorado. Ann Reg Sci 12, 41–53 (1978). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01286109

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01286109

Keywords

Search

Navigation