Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Forecasting change using an interregional homogeneity index

  • Published:
The Annals of Regional Science Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study of employment change in the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, SMSA applies an index of interregional homogeneity to determine the extent to which the industrial structure of the region over a nine-year period has been modifiedvis-a-vis that of the rest of the nation. Indices derived from the analysis are synthesized with a modified employment shift model to forecast expected employment for twenty-two industries in the ABE, SMSA for the year 1975. It is demonstrated that an interregional homogeneity index when combined with a shift and share model can be adapted to systematically forecast regional change. The concept employed is to first stratify the allocation of change to a sub-region in total and then to each industry.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Amemiya, Eiji. “Measurement of Economic Differentiation,”Journal of Regional Science 5 (1963), 85–87.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ashby, Lowell D. “Changes in Regional Industrial Structure: A Comment,”Urban Studies 7 (October, 1970), 298–303.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ashby, Lowell D. “The Geographical Redistribution of Change,”Survey of Current Business (October, 1964), 12–20.

  • Ashby, Lowell D. “The Shift and Share Analysis: A Reply,”The Southern Economic Journal (January, 1968), 423–425.

  • Ashby, Lowell D. “Regional Projections in a National Setting,” RED, Office of Business Economics, Department of Commerce, No. 66143 (no date).

  • Brown, H. James, “Shift and Share Projections of Regional Economic Growth: An Empirical Test,”Journal of Regional Science 9 (April, 1969), 1–18.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chalmers, James A. “Measuring Changes in Regional Industrial Structure: A Comment on Stilwell and Ashby,”Urban Studies 8 (October, 1971), 289–292.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chalmers, James A., Chunanuntathum, Supote, and Cowan, Richard S., Jr. “Regional Economic Growth in Thailand,”Annals of Regional Science 5 (December, 1971), 86–101.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cowan, Richard S., Jr. “Application of a Modified Employment Shift Model to Forecast Regional Change,” unpublished doctoral dissertation. Lehigh University, 1970.

  • Cowan, Richard S., Jr. “Economic Growth and Structural Change in the Allen-town-Bethlehem-Easton, SMSA,”The Northeast Regional Science Review 2 (1972), 200–209.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dunn, Edgar S., Jr. “A Statistical and Analytical Technique for Regional Analysis,”The Regional Science Association Papers and Proceedings (1960), 97–112.

  • Fuchs, Victor R. “Changes in the Location of Manufacturing Since 1929,”Journal of Regional Science (Spring, 1959), 1–17.

  • Houston, David B. “The Shift and Share Analysis of Regional Growth: A Critique,”The Southern Economic Journal (April, 1967), 577–581.

  • MacKay, D. I. “Industrial Structure and Regional Growth: A Methodological Problem,”Scottish Journal of Political Economy (June, 1968) 129–143.

  • Mahoney, Phillip S. “A Regional Economic Study: Projections of Employment and Population in the Denver SMSA,” unpublished doctoral dissertation, University of Colorado, 1967.

  • Perloff, Harvey S., Dunn, Edgar S., Lampard, Eric E., and Muth, Richard F.Regions, Resources and Economic Growth (Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1960).

    Google Scholar 

  • Perloff, Harvey S., and Wingo Lowdan, Jr. (eds.)Issues in Urban Economics (Baltimore, The Johns Hopkins Press, 1968).

    Google Scholar 

  • Sherr, Lawrence. “A Note on the Measurement of Regional Homogeneity,”Journal of Regional Science 6 (1966), 49–52.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stilwell, F. J. B. “Regional Growth and Structural Adaptation,”Urban Studies 6 (June, 1969), 162–178.

    Google Scholar 

  • U. S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,Growth Patterns in Employment by County, 1940–1950 and 1950–1960. Lowell Ashby (ed.) Washington, D. C.: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1965.

    Google Scholar 

  • U. S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.Tomorrow's Man-power Needs: National Manpower Projections and a Guide to Their Use as a Tool in Developing State and Area Manpower Projections. Washington, D. C.: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1969.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Waynesburg College, USA

    Richard S. Cowan Jr. (Associate Professor of Economics)

Authors
  1. Richard S. Cowan Jr.
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Additional information

This study was made possible in part by a research grant from Waynesburg College.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Cowan, R.S. Forecasting change using an interregional homogeneity index. Ann Reg Sci 7, 67–80 (1973). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01283484

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01283484

Keywords

Search

Navigation