Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Population density, urban centrality, and agricultural intensification in Jordan

  • Middle East Population Research
  • Published:
Population Research and Policy Review Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between population growth, agricultural production, and urban development. Ongoing debate in the literature regarding the relationship between population and economic development is restricted by the limited availability of time series data and the difficulty of evaluating causality using cross-sectional data. This analysis uses the special case of Jordan with its massive refugee flows to evaluate the influence of a sudden and exogenous change in population in urban areas on the intensification of agricultural production. Spearman Rank Order correlations are calculated from time series data to show that the districts which experienced the most rapid population growth and increases in population density also exhibited the largest increases in agricultural intensity. Cross-sectional analysis in which measures of agricultural intensification were predicted by population density and urbanization factors reveals a significant interaction between density and urban centrality, where ‘centrality’ is an indicator of the accessibility of urban goods to rural communities. The results suggest that population density has a strongly positive effect on agricultural intensity in areas with few urban goods and services available, whereas the influence of population density on agricultural intensity is substantially reduced in areas with a greater diversity of urban goods and services.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abujaber, R.S. (1989).Pioneers over Jordan: The frontier of settlement in Transjordan, 1850–1914. London: I.B. Tauris & Co.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bartlett, A. (1994). Reflections on sustainability, population growth, and the environment,Population and Environment: A Journal of Multidisciplinary Studies 16(1): 5–35.

    Google Scholar 

  • Berry, B.J.L. and Garrison, W. (1958). The functional bases of central place systems,Economic Geography 33: 145–54.

    Google Scholar 

  • Berry, B.J.L. and Parr, J. (1988).Market centers and retail location: Theory and applications. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bilsborrow, R.E. (1987). Population pressure and agricultural development in developing countries: A conceptual framework and recent evidence,World Development 15: 183–203.

    Google Scholar 

  • Birdsall, N. (1977). Analytical approaches to the relationship of population growth and development,Population and Development Review 3(7): 63–102.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blanchet, D. (1991). On the relationship between population growth and economic growth,Population and Development Review 17(1): 105–114.

    Google Scholar 

  • Boserup, E. (1965).The conditions of agricultural growth: The economics of agrarian change under population pressure. London: George, Allen and Unwin.

    Google Scholar 

  • Boserup, E. (1981).Population and technological change: A study of long term trends. University of Chicago Press.

  • Boserup, E. (1987). Population and technology in preindustrial Europe,Population and Development Review 13: 691–701.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cassen, R.H. (1976). Population and development: A review,World Development 4: 785–830.

    Google Scholar 

  • Davies, W. (1967). Centrality and the central place system,Urban Studies 4: 61–79.

    Google Scholar 

  • Daly, H. (1991). Sustainable development: From concept and theory to operational principles, in: K. Davis and M. Bernstam (eds.),Resources, environment, and population: present knowledge, future options. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 25–43.

    Google Scholar 

  • Doan, P.L. (1988).Urban centrality and agricultural productivity: A model of interdependent development with implications for regional planning in Jordan. Unpublished Ph.D. Dissertation. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University.

    Google Scholar 

  • Doan, P.L. (1991). Changing administrative regions in Jordan: Regional development strategy or distraction?,Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie 82(3): 177–184.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ehrlich, P. (1968).The population bomb. New York: Ballantine Books.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ehrlich, P. and Ehrlich, A. (1990).The population explosion. New York: Simon & Schuster.

    Google Scholar 

  • Frankfort, H. (1951).The birth of civilization in the Near East. Garden City, NJ: Doubleday.

    Google Scholar 

  • Glover, D.R. and Simon, J.L. (1981). The effect of population density on infrastructure: The case of road building,Economic Development and Cultural Change 29: 749–758.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gubser, P. (1983).Jordan: Crossroads of Middle Eastern events. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Haggblade, S., Hazell, P., and Brown, J. (1989). Farm-nofarm linkages in rural sub-Saharan Africa,World Development 17(8): 1173–1201.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hardin, G. (1968). The tragedy of the commons,Science 162: 1243–4.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hodgson, D. (1988). Orthodoxy and revisionism in American demography,Population and Development Review 14(4): 541–569.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kanaan, W. and Attieh, Y. (1974).Jordan: Agricultural development. Amman: Jordan Press Foundation.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kelley, A.C. (1988). Economic consequences of population change in the Third World,Journal of Economic Literature 26: 1685–1728.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keyfitz, N. (1991). Toward a theory of population-development interaction, in: K. Davis and M. Bernstam (eds.),Resources, environment, and population: present knowledge, future options. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 295–314.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keyfitz, N. (1993). Population and sustainable development: Distinguishing fact and preference concerning the future human population and environment,Population and Environment: A Journal of Multidisciplinary Studies 14(5): 441–461.

    Google Scholar 

  • Khamis, M. (1985). Population growth in the cities of the Irbid Governorate, Jordan,Population bulletin of ESCWA 27: 127–143.

    Google Scholar 

  • Khouri, R. (1982).The Jordan Valley: Life and society below sea level. London: Longman.

    Google Scholar 

  • Konikoff, A. (1947).Transjordan: An economic survey. Jerusalem: Economic Research Institute of the Jewish Agency for Palestine.

    Google Scholar 

  • Marshall, J.U. (1969).The location of service towns. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mazur, M. (1979).The economic development of Jordan. London: Croom Helm.

    Google Scholar 

  • McNicoll, G. (1984). Consequences of rapid population growth: An overview and assessment,Population and Development Review 10: 177–240.

    Google Scholar 

  • Meadows, D.H., Meadows, D.L., Randers, J., and Behrens W.W. (1972).The limits to growth. New York: Universe Books.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pedhazur, E.J. (1982).Multiple regression in behavioral research: Explanation and prediction, 2nd ed. New York: Holt, Rhinehart & Winston.

    Google Scholar 

  • Phillips, P.G. (1954).The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan: Prolegomena to a technical assistance program. Chicago: University of Chicago, Department of Geography, Research Paper No. 34.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rondinelli, D. and Ruddle, K. (1978).Urbanization and rural development: A spatial policy for equitable growth. New York: Praeger Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rondinelli, D. (1987). Cities as agricultural markets,Geographical Review 77: 408–420.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ruttan, V.W. (1955). The impact of urban-industrial development on agriculture in the Tennessee Valley and the Southeast,Land Economics 37: 38–56.

    Google Scholar 

  • Samha, M. (1980). Migration of refugees and non-refugees to Amman, 1948–1977,Population Bulletin of ECWA 19: 47–67.

    Google Scholar 

  • Samha, M. (1984). Shifts of the demographic weights of Jordanian Cities: 1952–1979,Population Bulletin of ECWA 24: 93–126.

    Google Scholar 

  • Simon, J. (1981).The ultimate resource. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Simon, J. (1989). On aggregate empirical studies relating population variables to economic development,Population and Development Review 15(2): 323–332.

    Google Scholar 

  • Simon, J. and Gobin, R. (1980). The relationship between population and economic gowth in LDC's, in: J. Simon and J. Davanzo (eds.),Research in Population economics, Vol. 2. Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, pp. 215–234.

    Google Scholar 

  • Swaney, J. (1991). Julian Simon versus the Ehrlichs: An institutionalist perspective,Journal of Economic Issues 25(2): 499–509.

    Google Scholar 

  • Taeuber, I. (1958). Population and political instability in underdeveloped areas, in P. Hauser (ed.),Population and world politics. Glencoe, IL: The Free Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tauriainen, J. and Young, F. (1976). The impact of urban-industrial development on agricultural income and productivity in Finland,Land Economics 52: 192–206.

    Google Scholar 

  • Weir D.P. (1991). A historical perspective on the economic consequences of rapid population growth, in: G. Tapins, D. Blanchet and D. Horlacher (eds.),Consequences of rapid population growth in developing countries. New York: Taylor & Francis, pp. 41–66.

    Google Scholar 

  • World Bank. (1957).The economic development of Jordan. Baltimore: the Johns Hopkins University Press published for the World Bank. Report of a Mission to Jordan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yanarella, E.J. and Levine, R.S. (1992). Does sustainable development lead to sustainability?,Futures October: 759–774.

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Florida State University, 32306-2030, Tallahassee, FL, USA

    Peter L. Doan

Authors
  1. Peter L. Doan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Peter L. Doan.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Doan, P.L. Population density, urban centrality, and agricultural intensification in Jordan. Popul Res Policy Rev 14, 29–44 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01255686

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01255686

Keywords

Search

Navigation