SO2 emission scenarios of Eastern China

Abstract

Under the National Key Project in Eighth Five-year Plan, a study was carried out on forecasting SO2 emission from coal combustion in China, with a special emphasis on eastern area. 3 scenarios, i.e. “Optimistic”, “Pessimistic” and “Business as Usual” scenario were developed trying to cover changing scale of coal consumption and SO2 emission from 1990 to 2020. “Top-down” approach was employed, and coal consumption elasticity was defined to project future economic growth and coal consumption. SO2 emission scenarios were outlined, based on coal consumption, estimated sulfur content level and prospective SO2 control situation. Emission level for each 1° longitude × 1° latitude grid cell within eastern China was also estimated to show geographical distribution of SO2 sources. The results show that SO2 emission of China will increase rapidly, if current situation for energy saving and SO2 control is maintained without improvement; measures enhanced reasonably with economic growth could stop further increase of emission by 2010; realization of more encouraging objective to keep emission at even below 1990 level needs, however, more stringent options. Share of eastern China in country's total emission would increase until 2000, while general changing tendency would principally follow the scenarios of whole country.