Simulation of forest and wood product carbon budget under a changing climate in Finland

Abstract

Flows of carbon (C) in the forest ecosystem were simulated with a gap-phase dynamics type model, while flows of C in wood products were simulated using a model that processes raw material into final products. In southern Finland, the ratio between gross production and total storage for the 500 year period was 3052–3572 Mg C ha⁻¹: 192–223 Mg C ha⁻¹ under the current climate and 4257–5096 Mg C ha⁻¹: 260–318 Mg C ha⁻¹ under the predicted changing climate. In northern Finland, the respective ratios were 1721–2021 Mg C ha⁻¹: 103–134 Mg C ha⁻¹ and 3409–4475 Mg C ha⁻¹: 212–244 Mg C ha⁻¹. The average total C storage in southern Finland over the 500 year period was 174–181 Mg C ha⁻¹ under the current climate, and 206–217 Mg C ha⁻¹ under the changing climate. In northern Finland, average total storage was 101 Mg C ha⁻¹ under the current climate, and 191–198 Mg C ha⁻¹ under the changing climate. The average C storages in unmanaged forest ecosystems under the current climate and under changing climate were 200 and 191 Mg C ha⁻¹ respectively in southern Finland, and 142 and 193 Mg C ha⁻¹ in northern Finland. Approximately 27–43% of total C was stored in wood products over a 500 year period. Wood products contributed 15–22% of the total emissions to the atmosphere. Over short periods, C sequestration potentials are much greater than over longer periods.