Skip to main content
Log in

The probability of a “gross” violation of an efficient markets variance inequality

  • Published:
Empirical Economics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This note considers the small sample bias of the empirical variances of observed and ex-post-rational prices of financial assets, and shows that this can be much more severe than has previously been thought.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Cochrane JH (1991) Volatility tests and efficient markets. Journal of Monetary Economics 27:463–485

    Google Scholar 

  • Flavin M (1983) Excess volatility in financial markets: A reassessment of the empirical evidence. Journal of Political Economy 91:929–956

    Google Scholar 

  • Gilles Ch, LeRoy St (1991) Econometric aspects of the variance-bounds tests: A survey. The Review of Financial Studies 4:753–791

    Google Scholar 

  • Kiviet J, Krämer W (1992) Bias ofS 2 in the linear regression model with correlated errors. Review of Economics and Statistics 74:362–365

    Google Scholar 

  • Kleidon AW (1986) Variance bounds tests and stock price valuation models. Journal of Political Economy 94:953–1001

    Google Scholar 

  • LeRoy St, Porter RD (1981) The present-value relation: Tests based on implied variance bounds. Econometrica 49:555–574

    Google Scholar 

  • Mankiw NG, Romer D, Shapiro MD (1985) Unbiased reexamination of stock market volatility. Journal of Finance 40:677–689

    Google Scholar 

  • Shiller R (1981) Do stock prices move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in dividends? American Economic Review 71:421–436

    Google Scholar 

  • Shiller R (1989) Market volatility. Cambridge (MIT Press)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Additional information

Research supported by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) and Ministerium für Wissenschaft und Forschung, NRW. I am grateful to Michael Schmidt, Jack Wahl, Wolfgang Bühler and an anonymous referee for helpful suggestions and comments.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Krämer, W. The probability of a “gross” violation of an efficient markets variance inequality. Empirical Economics 20, 473–478 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01180677

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01180677

JEL Classification System-Numbers

Navigation