Abstract
A sample of 209 distressed mortgages is used to analyze the terminations of distressed mortgages. An option-based model is compared to a traditional default model. Results show that the traditional model is statistically superior. However, the model's ability to identify a default is similar to that of the simpler option-based model. Alternative measures of borrower's equity are compared. Measuring borrower's equity using total debt more accurately explains default than using either the mortgage balance or the mortgage value.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Campbell, T.S., and Dietrich, J. K. “The Determinants of Default on Insured Conventional Residential Mortgage Loans.”Journal of Finance 38 (December 1983), 1569–1581.
Chow, G.C.Econometrics. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1983, ch. 9.
Clauretie, T.M. “The Impact of Interstate Foreclosure Cost Differences and the Value of Mortgages on Default Rates.”AREUEA Journal 15 (Fall 1987), 152–167.
Clauretie, T.M. and Herzog, T. “The Effect of State Foreclosure Laws on Loan Losses: Evidence from the Mortgage Insurance Industry.”Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 22 (May 1990), 221–233.
Cunningham, D. and Capone, C. “The Relative Termination Experiences of Adjustable to Fixed Rate Mortgages.”Journal of Finance 45 (December 1990), 1687–1703.
Cunningham, D. and Hendershott, P.H. “Pricing FHA Mortgage Default Insurance.”Housing Finance Review 3 (October 1984), 373–392.
Epperson, J.F., Kau, J.B., Keenan, D.C. and Muller, W.J. “Pricing Default Risk in Mortgages.”AREUEA Journal 13 (Fall 1985), 261–272.
Foster, C. and Van Order, R. “An Option Based Model of Mortgage Default.”Housing Finance Review 3 (October 1984), 351–372.
Foster, C. and Van Order, R. “FHA Terminations: A Prelude to Rational Option Pricing.”AREUEA Journal 13 (Fall 1985), 273–291.
Gardner, M.J. and Mills, D. “Evaluating the Likelihood of Default on Delinquent Loans.”Financial Management 18 (Winter 1989), 55–63.
Giliberto, S.M. and Houston, A. L. “Relocation Opportunities and Mortgage Default.”AREUEA Journal 17 (Spring 1989), 55–69.
Judge, G.G., Griffiths, W.E., Hill, R.C., Lutkepohl, H. and Lee T.The Theory and Practice of Econometrics. New York: Wiley, 1985.
Kau, J.B., Keenan, D.C., Muller, W.J. and Epperson, J.F. “Option Theory and Fixed Rate Mortgages.” The University of Georgia, Working Paper, 1987.
Kau, J.B., Keenan, D.C., Muller, W.J. and Epperson, J.F. “Pricing Fixed Rate Mortgages With Default and Prepayment.” The University of Georgia, Working Paper, 1989.
Leung, W.K. “Option Theory and Defaultable Mortgage Pricing.”Journal of Real Estate Research 4 (Spring 1989), 53–59.
Leung, W.K. and Sirmans, C.F. “A Lattice Approach to Pricing Fixed-Rate Mortgages with Default and Prepayment Options.”AREUEA Journal 18 (Spring 1990), 91–104.
Mulherin, J.H. and Muller, W.J., III. “Volatile Interest Rates and the Divergence of Incentives in Mortgage Contracts.”Journal of Law Economics and Organization 3 (Spring 1987), 99–115.
Swan, C. “Pricing Private Mortgage Insurance.”AREUEA Journal 10 (Fall 1982), 276–296.
Vandell, K.D. “Default Risk Under Alternative Mortgage Instruments.”Journal of Finance 33 (December 1978), 1279–1296.
Vandell, K.D. and Thibodeau, T. “Estimation of Mortgage Defaults Using Disaggregate Loan History Data.”AREUEA Journal 13 (Fall 1985), 292–316.
von Furstenberg, G.M. “Default Risk On FHA-Insured Home Mortgages As a Function of the Terms of Financing: A Quantitative Analysis.”Journal of Finance 24 (June 1969), 459–477.
von Furstenberg, G.M. and Green, R.J. “Home Mortgage Delinquencies: A Cohort Analysis.”Journal of Finance 29 (December 1974), 1545–1548.
Waller, N.G. “Residential Mortgage Default: A Clarifying Analysis.”Housing Finance Review 7 (Fall/Winter 1988), 321–333.
Waller, N.G. “Residential Mortgage Default: An Empirical Note on Changes in Property Value and Debt Over Time.”Housing Finance Review 8 (1989), 155–164.
Zorn, P.M. and Lea, M.J. “Mortgage Borrower Repayment Behavior: A Microeconomic Analysis with Canadian Adjustable Rate Mortgage Data.”AREUEA Journal 17 (Spring 1989), 118–136.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Springer, T.M., Waller, N.G. Termination of distressed residential mortgages: An empirical analysis. J Real Estate Finan Econ 7, 43–54 (1993). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01096935
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01096935