Abstract
The article discusses a probability model of the spread of an epidemic in which the elimination of sick persons (through death, immunity, or isolation) is taken into account. The authors find a limit distribution for the magnitude of the epidemic,v, on the assumption that n→∞, where n is the original number of susceptible persons, and\(\frac{\mu }{{\lambda n}} \to 1\), where λ and μ are the coefficient of infection and the coefficient of elimination, respectively.
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Translated from Matematicheskie Zametki, Vol. 3, No. 2, pp. 179–185, February, 1968.
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Nagaev, A.V., Startsev, A.V. Threshold theorem for an epidemic model. Mathematical Notes of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR 3, 115–119 (1968). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01094331
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01094331