Skip to main content

Global vegetation change predicted by the modified Budyko model

Climatic Change volume 25, pages 59–83 (1993)Cite this article

Abstract

A modified Budyko global vegetation model is used to predict changes in global vegetation patterns resulting from climate change (CO2 doubling). Vegetation patterns are predicted using a model based on a dryness index and potential evaporation determined by solving radiation balance equations. Climate change scenarios are derived from predictions from four General Circulation Models (GCM's) of the atmosphere (GFDL, GISS, OSU, and UKMO). Global vegetation maps after climate change are compared to the current climate vegetation map using the kappa statistic for judging agreement, as well as by calculating area statistics. All four GCM scenarios show similar trends in vegetation shifts and in areas that remain stable, although the UKMO scenario predicts greater warming than the others. Climate change maps produced by all four GCM scenarios show good agreement with the current climate vegetation map for the globe as a whole, although over half of the vegetation classes show only poor to fair agreement. The most stable areas are Desert and Ice/Polar Desert. Because most of the predicted warming is concentrated in the Boreal and Temperate zones, vegetation there is predicted to undergo the greatest change. Specifically, all Boreal vegetation classes are predicted to shrink. The interrelated classes of Tundra, Taiga, and Temperate Forest are predicted to replace much of their poleward (mostly northern) neighbors. Most vegetation classes in the Subtropics and Tropics are predicted to expand. Any shift in the Tropics favoring either Forest over Savanna, or vice versa, will be determined by the magnitude of the increased precipitation accompanying global warming. Although the model predicts equilibrium conditions to which many plant species cannot adjust (through migration or microevolution) in the 50–100 y needed for CO2 doubling, it is nevertheless not clear if projected global warming will result in drastic or benign vegetation change.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Access options

Buy single article

Instant access to the full article PDF.

USD 39.95

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

References

  • Adams, R. M., Rosenzweig, C., Peart, R. M., Ritchie, J. T., McCarl, B. A., Glyer, J. D., Curry, R. B., Jones, J. W., Boote, K. J., and Allen, L. H.: 1990, ‘Global Climate Change and U.S. Agriculture’,Nature 346, 219–223.

    Google Scholar 

  • Akima, H.: 1978, ‘A Method of Bivariate Interpolation and Smooth Surface Fitting for Irregularly Distributed Datapoints’,ACM Transact. Mathem. Softw. 4, 148–159.

    Google Scholar 

  • Anonymous: 1966–1970,Reference Book of Climate of the USSR, Vol. I–IV, Issues 21–24, Hydrometeoizdat, Leningrad. (In Russian).

    Google Scholar 

  • Anonymous: 1984,Agroclimatological Data for Africa, Food and Agriculture of the United Nations, Rome.

    Google Scholar 

  • Anonymous: 1987,Agroclimatological Data for Asia, Food and Agriculture of the United Nations, Rome.

    Google Scholar 

  • Berliand, M. E. and Berliand, T. G.: 1952, ‘Determining the Effect of Net Longwave Radiation of the Earth with Consideration of the Influence of Cloudiness’,Isvestia Akad. Nauk SSSR (Proc. Soviet Acad. Sci.), Geophys. Ser. 1, 64–78. (In Russian).

    Google Scholar 

  • Berliands, T. G.: 1960, ‘Methods of Climatological Computation of Total Incoming Solar Radiation’,Meteorol. Gidrol. 6, 9–12. (In Russian).

    Google Scholar 

  • Box, E. O.: 1981,Macroclimate and Plant Forms: An Introduction to Predictive Modeling in Phytogeography, Dr. W. Junk Publ., The Hague.

    Google Scholar 

  • Budyko, M. I.: 1949, ‘The Energy Balance of the Northern Hemisphere’,Main Geophys. Observ. Proc. 18. (In Russian).

  • Budyko, M. I.: 1956,The Energy Balance of Land Surface, Leningrad Gidrometeoizdat, 256 pp. (In Russian).

  • Budyko, M. I. (ed.): 1963,Atlas of World Energy Balance, Interdepartmental Geophysical Committee, Moscow. (In Russian).

    Google Scholar 

  • Budyko, M. I.: 1971,Climate and Life, Hydrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 472 pp. (In Russian).

    Google Scholar 

  • Budyko, M. I.: 1974,Climate and Life, Academic Press, New York, 508 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Budyko, M. I.: 1986,The Evolution of the Biosphere, D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht, 423 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Budyko, M. I. and Izrael, Y. I. (eds.): 1987,Anthropogenic Climate Changes, Leningrad Gidrometeoizdat, 404 pp. (In Russian).

  • Budyko, M. I., Berliand, T. G., Efimova, N. A., Zubenok, L. I., and Strokina, L. A.: 1978,The Heat Balance of the Earth, Leningrad Gidrometeoizdat, 40 pp. (In Russian).

  • Campbell, G. S.: 1977,An Introduction to Environmental Biophysics, Springer-Verlag, New York, 159 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cess, R. D., Potter, G. L., Zhang, M.-H., Blanchet, J.-P., Chalita, S., Colman, R., Dazlich, D. A., del Genio, A. D., Dymnikov, V., Galin, V., Jerrett, D., Keup, E., Lacis, A. A., le Treut, H., Liang, X.-Z., Mahfouf, J.-F., McAvaney, B. J., Meleshko, V. P., Mitchell, J. F. B., Morcrette, J.-J., Norris, P. M., Randall, D. A., Rikus, L., Roeckner, E., Royer, J.-F., Schlese, U., Sheinin, D. A., Slingo, J. M., Sokolov, A. P., Taylor, K. E., Washington, W. M., Wetherald, R. T., and Yagai, I.: 1991, ‘Interpretation of Snow-Climate Feedback as Produced by 17 General Circulation Models’,Science 253, 888–892.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cohen, J.: 1960, ‘A Coefficient of Agreement for Nominal Scales’,Educat. Psychol. Measur. 20, 37–46.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cramer, W., Harrison, S. P., Leemans, R., Monserud, R. A., Prentice, I. C., and Solomon, A. M.: 1992, ‘An Application of a Global Biome Model to Different Climate Change Scenarios’,Proceedings of 27th International Geographical Congress, Washington, DC (in press).

  • Cramer, W. and Leemans, R.: 1993, ‘Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Vegetation Using Climate Classification Systems’, in Solomon, A. M. and Shugart, H. H. (eds.),Vegetation Dynamics and Global Change, Chapman and Hall, New York, pp. 190–217.

    Google Scholar 

  • Davis, M. B.: 1983, ‘Quaternary History of Deciduous Forest of Eastern North America and Europe’,Ann. Mo. Bot. Gard. 70, 550–563.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dokuchaev, B. B.: 1900, ‘Zones Naturelles des Sols’, inThe Study of Natural Zones, 1948, Moscow. (In Russian).

  • Efimova, N. A.: 1977,Radiation Factors of Vegetation Productivity, Hydrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 216 pp. (In Russian).

    Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel, W. R., Shugart, H. H., and Stevenson, M. P.: 1985, ‘Climatic Change and the Broad-Scale Distribution of Terrestrial Ecosystems Complexes’,Clim. Change 7, 29–43.

    Google Scholar 

  • Green, P. J. and Sibson, R.: 1978, ‘Computing Dirichlet Tessellations in the Plane’,Comput. J. 21, 168–173.

    Google Scholar 

  • Grigoriev, A. A.: 1954, ‘Geographical Zonation and its Regularities’,Izvestia AN SSSR (Proc. Soviet Acad. Sci.), Geogr. Ser. 5, 17–29. (In Russian).

    Google Scholar 

  • Grigoriev, A. A. and Budyko, N. I.: 1956, ‘On the Periodical Law of Geographical Zonation’,Doklady AN SSSR (Proc. Soviet Acad. Sci.) 1, 151–154. (In Russian).

    Google Scholar 

  • Guetter, P. J. and Kutzbach, J. E.: 1990, ‘A Modified Köppen Classification Applied to Model Simulations of Glacial and Interglacial Climates’,Clim. Change 16, 193–215.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hansen, J., Russell, G., Rind, D., Stone, P., Lacis, A., Lebedeff, S., Reudy, R., and Travis, L.: 1983, ‘Efficient Three-Dimensional Global Models for Climate Studies: Models I and II’,Mon. Wea. Rev III(4, 609–662.

    Google Scholar 

  • Harrison, S. P.: 1990, ‘An Introduction to General Circulation Modelling Experiments with Raised CO2’,Working Paper WP - 90 - 27, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 52 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Holdridge, L. R.: 1967,Life Zone Ecology, Tropical Science Center, San José, Costa Rica. 206 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J., and Ephraums, J. J. (eds.): 1990,Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 365 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Houghton, J. T., Callander, B. A., and Varney, S. K. (eds.): 1992,Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 200 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hummel, J. A. and Reck, R. A.: 1979, ‘A Global Surface Albedo Model’,J. Appl. Meteorol. 36, 239–253.

    Google Scholar 

  • Isachenko, A. G.: 1988, ‘Landscapes and the Content of the World Landscapes Map’,Izvestia VGO, (Proc. All-Union Geogr. Soc.) 120(6, 489–501. (In Russian).

    Google Scholar 

  • Jäger, J.: 1988, ‘Developing Policies for Responding to Climatic Change’, World Meteorological Organization WMO/TD-225.

  • Köppen, W.: 1936, ‘Das Geographische System der Klimate’, in Köppen, W. and Geiger, R. (eds.),Handbuch der Klimatologie, Vol.1, Part C, Gebrüder Borntraeger, Berlin.

    Google Scholar 

  • Landis, J. R. and Koch, G. G.: 1977, ‘The Measurement of Observer Agreement for Categorical Data’,Biometrics 33, 159–174.

    Google Scholar 

  • Leemans R.: 1989, ‘Possible Changes in Natural Vegetation Patterns Due to a Global Warming’, in Hackl, A. (ed.),Der Treibhauseffekt: Das Problem - Mögliche Folgen - Erforderliche Maßnahmen, Akademie für Umwelt and Energie, Laxenburg, Austria, 105–122.

    Google Scholar 

  • Leemans, R.: 1992, ‘Modelling Ecological and Agricultural Impacts of Global Change on a Global Scale’,J. Scient. Industr. Res. (in press).

  • Leemans, R. and Cramer, W. P.: 1991, ‘The IIASA Database for Mean Monthly Values of Temperature, Precipitation and Cloudiness on a Global Terrestrial Grid’,Research Report RR-91-18, International Institute of Applied Systems Analyses, Laxenburg, Austria, 61 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Manabe, S. and Wetherald, R. T.: 1980, ‘On the Distribution of Climate Change Resulting from an Increase in CO2-Content of the Atmosphere’,J. Atmos. Sci. 37, 99–118.

    Google Scholar 

  • Manabe, S. and Wetherald, R. T.: 1987, ‘Large-Scale Changes in Soil Wetness Induced by an Increase in Carbon Dioxide’,J. Atmos. Sci. 44, 1211–1235.

    Google Scholar 

  • Matthews, E.: 1984, ‘Vegetation, Land-Use and Seasonal Albedo Data Sets’,NASA Technic. Memor. 86107, NASA, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Matthews, E.: 1985, ‘Atlas of Archived Vegetation, Land-Use and Seasonal Albedo Data Sets’,NASA Technic. Memor. 86199, NASA, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mitchell, J. F. B.: 1983, ‘The Seasonal Response of a General Circulation Model to Changes in CO2 and Sea Temperature’,Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 109, 113–152.

    Google Scholar 

  • Monserud, R. A.: 1990, ‘Methods for Comparing Global Vegetation Maps’,Working Paper WP-90-40, International Institute of Applied Systems Analyses, Laxenburg, Austria, 31 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Monserud, R. A. and Leemans, R.: 1992, ‘The Comparison of Global Vegetation Maps’,Ecol. Modell. 62, 275–293.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mukhenberg, V. V.: 1963, ‘Surface Albedo of the Territory of the USSR’,Main Geophys. Observ. Proc. 139, 43–60. (In Russian).

    Google Scholar 

  • Müller, M. J.: 1982,Selected Climatic Data for a Global Set of Standard Stations for Vegetation Science, Dr. W. Junk Publ., The Hague, 306 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Neilson, R. P., King, G. A., and Leemans, R.: 1992, ‘Simulating the Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystems with Static Models’, in Leemans, R. (ed.),Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystems and Species, Chapman and Hall, New York (in press).

    Google Scholar 

  • Olson, J., Watts, J. A., and Allison, L. J.: 1983,Carbon in Live Vegetation of Major World Ecosystems, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Polikarpov, N. P., Tchebakova, N. H., and Nazimova, D.: 1986,Climate and Montane Forests in Southern Siberia, Siberian Division, Academy of Sciences of the USSR, Novosibirsk, 225 pp. (In Russian).

    Google Scholar 

  • Prentice, I. C., Sykes, M. T., and Cramer, W.: 1991, ‘The Possible Dynamic Response of Northern Forests to Global Warming’,Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. Let. 1, 129–135.

    Google Scholar 

  • Prentice, I. C., Cramer, W., Harrison, S. P., Leemans, R., Monserud, R. A., and Solomon, A. M.: 1992, ‘A Global Biome Model Based on Plant Physiology and Dominance, Soil Properties and Climate’,J. Biogeogr. 19, 117–134.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rehfeldt, G. E., 1989: ‘Ecological Adaptations in Douglas-Fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca): A Synthesis’,For. Ecol. Manage. 28, 203–215.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rind, D., Rosenzweig, C., and Goldberg, R.: 1992, ‘Modelling the Hydrological Cycle in Assessments of Climate Change’,Nature 358, 119–122.

    Google Scholar 

  • Robock, A.: 1980, ‘The Seasonal Cycle of Snow Cover, Sea Ice and Surface Albedo’,Mon. Wea. Rev. 267-285.

  • Schlesinger, M. E. and Zhao, Z. C.: 1989, ‘Seasonal Climatic Changes Induced by Doubled CO2 as Simulated by the OSU Atmospheric GCM/Mixed-Layer Ocean Model’,J. Clim. 2, 459–495.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shver, Z. A.: 1984,Regularities of Precipitation Distribution on Continents, Hydrometeoizdat, Leningrad. (In Russian).

    Google Scholar 

  • Solomon, A. M., Tharp, M. L., West, D. C., Taylor, G. E., Webb, J. M., and Trimble, J. C.: 1984, ‘Response of Unmanaged Forests to CO2-Induced Climate Change: Available Information, Initial Tests, and Data Requirements’,TR009, U.S. Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC, 93 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Solomon, A. M.: 1986, ‘Transient Response of Forests to CO2-Induced Climatic Change: Simulation Modelling Experiments in Eastern North America’,Oecologia 68, 567–579.

    Google Scholar 

  • Solomon, A. M. and Leemans, R.: 1990, ‘Climate Change and Landscape Ecological Response: Issues and Analysis’, in Boer, M. M. and de Groot, R. S. (eds.),Landscape Ecological Impacts of Climate Change, IOS Press, Amsterdam, 239–316.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tchebakova, N. M., Monserud, R. A., Leemans, R., and Golovanov, S. V.: 1993, ‘A Global Vegetation Model Based on the Climatological Approach of Budyko’,J. Biogeogr. 20 (in press).

  • Thornthwaite, C. W.: 1948, ‘An Approach Toward a Rational Classification of Climate’,Geogr. Rev. 38, No. 1.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ukraintsev, V. N.: 1939, ‘An Approximate Calculation of Total Direct and Scattered Radiation’,Meteorol. Gidrol. 6. (In Russian).

  • Voronov, A. G., Drazdov, N. N., and Myalo, L. M.: 1985,Biogeography of the World, Moscow. (In Russian).

  • Vysotsky, G. N.: 1905, ‘Steppes of European Russian’, inComplete Encyclopedia of Russian Agriculture, Vol.9, Moscow. (In Russian).

  • Wetherald, R. T. and Manabe, S.: 1986, ‘An Investigation of a Cloud Cover Change in Response to Thermal Forcing’,Clim. Change 8, 5–23.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilson, C. A. and Mitchell, J. F. B.: 1987, A Doubling CO2 Climate Sensitivity Experiment with a Global Climate Model Including a Simple Ocean',J. Geophys. Res. 92, 13315–13343.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zubenok, L. I.: 1976,Evaporation on the Continents, Hydrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 264 pp. (In Russian).

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Intermountain Research Station, Forest Service, United States Department of Agriculture, 1221 S. Main St., 83843, Moscow, ID, USA

    Robert A. Monserud

  2. Forest Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Academgorodok, 660036, Krasnoyarsk, Russia

    Nadja M. Tchebakova

  3. Global Change Department, National Institute for Public Health and Environmental Protection, 3720 BA Bilthoven, PO Box 1, The Netherlands

    Rik Leemans

Authors
  1. Robert A. Monserud
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Nadja M. Tchebakova
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Rik Leemans
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Monserud, R.A., Tchebakova, N.M. & Leemans, R. Global vegetation change predicted by the modified Budyko model. Climatic Change 25, 59–83 (1993). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01094084

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01094084

Keywords

  • Climate Change
  • Global Warming
  • General Circulation Model
  • Climate Change Scenario
  • Vegetation Change