Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

An analysis of net immigration in census coverage evaluation

  • Immigration And Internal Migration
  • Published:
Population Research and Policy Review Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

National surveys monitored growth in the foreign-born population for the 1980s, especially net undocumented migration's continuing role, but the 1990 census portrayed an even larger foreign-born population than these surveys. Undercoverage in 1990 could have been higher than initially presented because preliminary studies may have insufficiently accounted for decadal net immigration. Assumptions intended to maintain a high undocumented undercount performed poorly when census counts of foreign-born residents became known. Any point estimate for net undocumented migration, calculated as a residual, is likely to be biased by assumptions and data gaps for components of calculating net legal immigration, especially in the direction of underestimation. A reasonable statement is that at least 2.1–2.4 million undocumented residents were enumerated in the 1990 census. The number of unenumerated undocumented residents may easily have ranged between 0.5 million and 3.0 million, and a narrower range of 1 million to 2 million is plausible. Despite the importance of undocumented migration measurement for census evaluation and policy purposes, differences among various undocumented estimates are more likely to stem from discrepancies in universe, reference dates, or individual judgment, rather than analytic refinement. Better measurement of the foreignborn population or its census coverage would aid in setting upper limits on net undocumented migration.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bean, F.D., Espenshade, T.J., White, M.J. & Dymowski, R.F. (1990). Post-IRCA changes in the volume and composition of undocumented migration to the United States: An assessment based on apprehensions data, pp. 111–158, in: F. D. Bean, B. Edmonston & J.S. Passel (eds.),Undocumented migration to the United States: IRCA and the experience of the 1980s. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bean, F.D., King, A.G. & Passel, J.S. (1983). The number of illegal migrants of Mexican origin in the United States: Sex ratio based estimates for 1980,Demography 20 (1): 99–110.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bos, E. (1984). Estimates of the number of illegal aliens: An analysis of the sources of disagreement,Population Research and Policy Review 3: 239–254.

    Google Scholar 

  • Clark, R.L., Passel, J.S., Zimmermann, W.N., Fix, M.E., with Mann, T.L. & Berkowitz, R.E. (1994). Fiscal impacts of undocumented aliens: Selected estimates for seven states. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute.

    Google Scholar 

  • Das Gupta, P. (1991). Project D11: Error interval model for demographic analysis estimates of coverage. Washington DC: US Bureau of the Census, Preliminary Research and Evaluation Memorandum, No. 84.

    Google Scholar 

  • de la Puente, M. (1993). Why are people missed or erroneously included by the census: A summary of findings from ethnographic coverage reports, pp. 29–66 in:Proceedings of the Research Conference on Undercounted Ethnic Populations, US Bureau of the Census, 5–7 May 1993. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • Donato, K.M., Durand, J. & Massey, D.S. (1992). Stemming the tide: Assessing the deterrent effects of the Immigration Reform and Control Act,Demography 29: 139–158.

    Google Scholar 

  • Durand, J. & Massey, D.S. (1992). Mexican migration to the United States: A critical review,Latin American Research Review 27(2): 3–41.

    Google Scholar 

  • Edmonston, B. & Passel, J.S. (1992). Immigration and immigrant generations in population projections,International Journal of Forecasting 8: 459–476.

    Google Scholar 

  • Edmonston, B. & Passel, J.S. (1994a). Ethnic demography: US immigration and ethnic variations, pp. 1–30, in: B. Edmonston & J.S. Passel (eds.),Immigration and ethnicity: The integration of America's newest immigrants. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute.

    Google Scholar 

  • Edmonston, B. & Passel, J.S. (1994b). The future immigrant population of the United States, pp. 317–354, in: B. Edmonston & J.S. Passel (eds.),Immigration and ethnicity: The integration of America's newest immigrants. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute.

    Google Scholar 

  • Espenshade, T.J. (1989). Growing imbalances between labor supply and labor demand in the Caribbean Basin, pp. 113–160, in: F.D. Bean, J. Schmandt, & S. Weintraub (eds.),Mexican and Central American population and US immigration policy. Austin: Center for Mexican American Studies.

    Google Scholar 

  • Espenshade, T.J. (1990). Undocumented migration to the United States: Evidence from a repeated trials model, pp. 159–182, in: F.D. Bean, B. Edmonston, & J.S. Passel (eds.),Undocumented migration to the United States: IRCA and the experience of the 1980s. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fay, R.E., Passel, J.S. & Robinson, J.G. (1988).The coverage of population in the 1980 Census. Washington DC: Government Printing Office, 1980 Census of Population and Housing, Evaluation and Research Reports, PHC80-E4.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fein, D.J. (1990). Racial and ethnic differences in US census omission rates,Demography 27(2): 285–302.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fix, M. Passel, J.S. (1991). The doors remain open: Recent immigration to the United States and a preliminary analysis of the Immigration Act of 1990. Program for Research on Immigration Policy Discussion Paper PRIP-UI-14, January. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hagan, J. (1991). Investigating census coverage and content among the undocumented: An ethnographic study of Latino-immigrant tenants in Houston. Report under JSA with University of Houston and Center for Survey Methods Research. Washington DC: US Bureau of the Census.

    Google Scholar 

  • Heer, D. & Passel, J.S. (1987). Comparison of two different methods for computing the number of undocumented Mexican adults in Los Angeles County,International Migration Review 21: 1446–1473.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hill, K. (1985). Illegal aliens: An assessment, pp. 225–250 in: D.B. Levine, K. Hill & R. Warren (eds.),Immigration statistics: A story of neglect. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Himes, C.L. & Clogg, C.C. (1992). An overview of demographic analysis as a method for evaluating census coverage in the United States,Population Index 58(4): 587–607.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hogan, H. (1992). The 1990 Post-enumeration survey: An overview,The American Statistician 46: 261–269.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hogan, H. (1993). The 1990 Post-enumeration survey: Operations and results,Journal of the American Association 88(423): 1047–1060.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hogan, H. & Robinson, J.G. (1993). What does the Census Bureau's evaluations tell us about the differential undercount?, pp. 9–28 in:Proceedings of the Research Conference on Undercounted Ethnic Populations, US Bureau of the Census, 5–7 May 1993. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • Interpreter Releases (1989). Volume 55, pp. 645–647.

  • Kissam, E. (1993). In search of farmworkers missing from the 1990 Census,Poverty and Race 2(3): 5–7.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kissam, E., Gabbard, S. & Martin, P.L. (1993). The impact of travel patterns on the undercount of Hispanic farm workers, pp. 207–246, in:Proceedings of 1993 Research Conference on Undercounted Ethnic Populations, 5–7 May 1993. Washington DC: US Bureau of the Census.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kraly, E.P. & Warren, R. (1991). Long-term immigration to the United States: new approaches to measurement,International Migration Review 25 (1): 60–93.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kraly, E.P. & Warren, R. (1992). Estimates of long-term immigration to the United States: Moving US statistics toward United Nations concepts,Demography 29(4): 613–626.

    Google Scholar 

  • Levine, D.B., Hill, K. & Warren, R. eds., (1985).Immigration statistics: A story of neglect. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mahler, S.J. (1993). Alternate enumeration of undocumented Salvadorans on Long Island. Report No. 26 completed under JSA 89–46 with Columbia University and Center for Survey Methods Research. Washington DC: US Bureau the Census.

    Google Scholar 

  • Martin, P.L., Taylor, J.E. & Rosenberg, H. (1992). The North American Free Trade Agreement and rural Mexican migration to the United States. Paper prepared for the UC AIC Conference, March 5.

  • Massey, D.S., Alarcon, R., Durand, J. & Gonzalez, H. (1987).Return to Aztlan: The social process of international migration from Western Mexico. Berkeley CA: University of California Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Massey, D.S., Donato, K.M. & Liang, Z. (1990). Effects of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986: Preliminary data from Mexico, pp. 183–210, in: F.D. Bean, B. Edmonston & J.S. Passel (eds.),Undocumented migration to the United States: IRCA and the experience of the 1980s. Washington, DC The Urban Institute.

    Google Scholar 

  • Massey, D.S., Goldring, L. & Durand, J. (1994). Continuities in transnational migration: An analysis of nineteen Mexican communities,American Journal of Sociology 99(6): 1492–1533.

    Google Scholar 

  • Massey, D.S. & Singer, A. (1994). New estimates of undocumented Mexican migration and the probability of apprehension. Unpublished manuscript, University of Chicago, Population Research Center, July 1994.

  • Meisenheimer, J.R. (1992). How do immigrants fare in the US labor market?,Monthly Labor Review (December): 3–19.

  • Montoya, M.D. (1992). Ethnographic evaluation of the behavioral causes of undercount: Woodburn, Oregon. Report completed under JSA 90-06 with University of Oregon and Center tor Survey Methods Research. Washington, DC: US Bureau of the Census.

    Google Scholar 

  • Papademetriou, D.G., Bach, R.I., Brill, H., Cobb-Clark, D.A., Kramer, R.G., Lowell, B.L., Shea, M. & Smith, S.J. (1991).Employer sanctions and US labor markets: Second report. Washington, DC: US Department of Labor.

    Google Scholar 

  • Passel, J.S. (1985). Report of the Expert Working Group on immigration, internal memorandum to Roger Herriott. Washington, DC: Bureau of the Census.

    Google Scholar 

  • Passel, J.S. (1991). Technical memorandum dated July 30, 1991: Approximate range of error for the estimated number of undocumented aliens included in the 1980 Census.

  • Passel, J.S. & Edmonston, B. (1994). Immigration and race: Recent trends in immigration to the United States. pp. 31–72 in: B. Edmonston & J.S. Passel (eds.),Immigration and Ethnicity: The Integration of America's Newest Immigrants. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute.

    Google Scholar 

  • Passel, J.S. & Luther, N.Y. (1991). Preliminary application of the consistent correction procedure to the Mexican-born population of the United States: 1960–1980. Unpublished paper presented at the Seminar on Evaluation and Analysis of Population Data, Mexico City.

  • Passel, J.S. & Robinson, J.G. (1988). Methodology for developing estimates of coverage in the 1980 Census based on demographic analysis: Net undocumented immigration. Washington, DC: Bureau of the Census.

    Google Scholar 

  • Passel, J.S., Siegel, J.S. & Robinson, J.G. (1982).Coverage of the National Population in the 1980 Census, by Age, Sex, and Race: Preliminary Estimates by Demographic Analysis. Current Population Reports, Special Studies P-23, No. 115. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • Passel, I.S. & Woodrow, K.A. (1984). Geographic distribution of undocumented immigrants: Estimates of undocumented aliens counted in the 1980 Census by state,International Migration Review 18(3): 642–671.

    Google Scholar 

  • Passel, J.S. & Woodrow, K.A. (1987). Change in the undocumented alien population in the United States, 1979–1983,International Migration Review 21: 1304–1334.

    Google Scholar 

  • President's Report (1989).The President's Comprehensive Triennial Report on Immigration. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.

  • President's Report (1991).The President's First Report on Implementation and Impact of Employer Sanctions. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.

  • Preston, S.H. (1994). The contours of demography: Estimates and projections,Demography 30(4): 593–606.

    Google Scholar 

  • Robinson, J.G., Ahmed, B., Das Gupta, P. & Woodrow, K.A. (1991). Estimating coverage for the 1990 United States Census: Demographic analysis,Proceedings of the 1991 Joint statistical Meetings. Atlanta, Georgia: American Statistical Association.

    Google Scholar 

  • Robinson, J.G., Ahmed, B., Das Gupta, P. & Woodrow, K.A. (1993). Estimating coverage of the 1990 United States census: Demographic analysis,Journal of the American Statistical Association 88 (423): 1061–1079.

    Google Scholar 

  • Robinson, J.G., Woodrow, K.A. & Ahmed, B. (1991). Project D7: Uncertainty measures for other components. Preliminary Research and Evaluation Memorandum No. 80, Washington, DC: US Bureau of the Census.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rogers, A. (1990). Requiem for the net migrant,Geographical Analysis 22(4): 283–300.

    Google Scholar 

  • Romero, M. (1992). Ethnographic evaluation of behavioral causes of census undercount of undocumented immigrants and Salvadorans in the Mission District of San Francisco, California. Report completed under JSA 89-41 with University of Oregon and Center for Survey Methods Research. Washington, DC: US Bureau of the Census.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stepick, A. & Stepick, C.D. (1992). Alternative enumeration of Haitians in Miami, Florida. Report completed under JSA 90-08 with Florida International University and Center for Survey Methods Research. Washington, DC: Bureau of the Census.

    Google Scholar 

  • Thornburgh, R. (1989). Letter to the Attorney General.

  • United Nations (1980).Recommendation on Statistics of International Migration. Statistical Papers Series M, No. 58.

  • US Bureau of the Census (1974). 1970 Census of Population and Housing Research Program: Estimates of coverage of population by sex, race, and age: Demographic analysis. Report No. PHC(E)-4. Washington DC.

  • US Bureau of the Census (1991). Census Bureau releases refined estimates from Postenumeration Survey of 1990 Census coverage. CB91-221 (13 June 1991).

  • US Bureau of the Census (1992). The foreign-born population in the United States: 1990. Report NO. CPH-L-98. Washington, DC.

  • US Bureau of the Census (1993). The foreign-born population by race, Hispanic origin, and citizenship: 1990. Report No. CPH-L-134. Washington, DC.

  • US Department of State (1993).Visa Bulletin 7 (23 May).

  • US General Accounting Office (1993). Illegal aliens: Despite data limitations, current methods provide better population estimates. Report No. GAO/PEMD-83-25. Washington, DC.

  • US Immigration and Naturalization Service (1991).Statistical Yearbook of the Immigration and Naturalization Service. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • US Immigration and Naturalization Service (1992).Statistical Yearbook of the Immigration and Naturalization Service. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • US Immigration and Naturalization Service (1992).Immigration Reform and Control Act: Report on the legalized alien population. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • US Immigration and Naturalization Service (1993).Statistical Yearbook of the Immigration and Naturalization Service. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • Velasco, A. (1992). Ethnographic evaluation of behavioral causes of undercount in the community of Sherman Heights, California. Report completed under JSA 89-42 with Chicano Federation of San Diego County, Inc. and Center for Survey Methods Research. Washington DC: US Bureau of the Census.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wachter, K.W. (1992). Demographic analysis. Unpublished report, dated 26 April 1992.

  • Wachter, K.W. & Freedman, D. (1993). Measuring state and local heterogeneity in 1990 Census coverage indicators. Presented at the 1993 annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Cincinnati.

  • Warren, R. (1990). Annual estimates of nonimmigrant overstays in the United States: 1985 to 1988, pp. 77–110, in: F.D. Bean, B. Edmonston & J.S. Passel (eds.),Undocumented migration to the United States: IRCA and the experience of the 1980s: Washington, DC: The Urban Institute.

    Google Scholar 

  • Warren, R. (1993). Estimates of the resident illegal alien population: October 1992. Unpublished document, 31 August 1993. Washington, DC: US Immigration and Naturalization Service, Statistics Division.

    Google Scholar 

  • Warren, R. (1994). Estimates of the unauthorized immigrant population residing in the United States by country of origin and state of residence: October 1992. Unpublished paper presented at ‘California Immigration 1994’, 29 April. Washington, DC: US Immigration and Naturalization Service, Statistics Division.

    Google Scholar 

  • Warren, R. & Kraly, E.P. (1985). The elusive exodus: Emigration from the United States.Population Trends and Public Policy 8 (March). Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau.

    Google Scholar 

  • Warren, R. & Passel, J.S. (1987). A count of the uncountable: Estimates of undocumented aliens counted in the 1980 Census,Demography 24: 375–393.

    Google Scholar 

  • Warren, R. & Peck, J.M. (1980). Foreign-born emigration from the United States: 1960 to 1970,Demography 17(1): 71–84.

    Google Scholar 

  • White, M.J., Bean, F.D. & Espenshade, T.J. (1990). The US 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act and undocumented migration to the United States,Population Research and Policy Review 9: 93–116.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wingerd, J. (1992). Urban Haitians: Documented/undocumented in a mixed neighborhood. Report completed under JSA 90-10 with Community Service Council of Broward County, Inc. and Center for Survey Methods Research. Washington, DC: US Bureau of the Census.

    Google Scholar 

  • Woodrow, K.A. (1987). Demographic accounting of the nonimmigrant population. Unpublished paper.

  • Woodrow, K.A. (1990). Temporary resident alien population — data and implications for census coverage evaluation. Internal memorandum to J. Gregory Robinson, dated 3 October 1990. Washington, DC: US Bureau of the Census.

    Google Scholar 

  • Woodrow, K.A. (1991a). Project D2: Preliminary estimates of undocumented residents in 1990. Preliminary Research and Evaluation Memorandum No. 75. Washington, DC: US Bureau of the Census.

    Google Scholar 

  • Woodrow, K.A. (1991b). Undocumented population in 2000. Internal memorandum for the record, dated 27 February 1991. Washington, DC: US Bureau of the Census.

    Google Scholar 

  • Woodrow, K.A. (1991c). Project D5: Preliminary estimates of emigration component. Preliminary Research and Evaluation Memorandum No. 78. Washington, DC: US Bureau of the Census.

    Google Scholar 

  • Woodrow, K.A. (1992a). Preliminary evaluation of initial 1990 Census count of foreign-born population — Revised Memorandum of 10 January 1992. Internal memorandum to Paula J. Schneider, US Bureau of the Census, dated 3 February 1992, Washington, DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • Woodrow, K.A. (1992b). A consideration of the effect of immigration reform on the number of undocumented residents in the United States,Population Research and Policy Review 11: 117–144.

    Google Scholar 

  • Woodrow-Lafield, K.A. (1993). Coverage evaluation and growth of the foreign-born population, pp. 457–478, in:Proceedings of 1993 Research Conference on Undercounted Ethnic Populations, 5–7 May 1993. US Bureau of the Census. Washington, DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • Woodrow-Lafield, K.A. (1994a). Emigration from the United States: Multiplicity survey evidence. Revised version of paper presented at the 1990 annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Toronto.

  • Woodrow-Lafield, K.A. (1994b). Finding an upper limit on recent net undocumented immigration to the United States. Revised version of paper presented at the 1993 annual meeting of the American Sociological Association, Miami Beach.

  • Woodrow, K.A. & Passel, J.S. (1990). Post-IRCA undocumented immigration to the United States: An assessment based on the June 1988 CPS, pp. 33–76, in: F.D. Bean, B. Edmonston & J.S. Passel (eds.),Undocumented migration to the United States: RCA and the experience of the 1980s. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Social and Demographic Analysis, State University of New York, at Albany, Albany, New York, USA

    Karen A. Woodrow-Lafield

Authors
  1. Karen A. Woodrow-Lafield
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Karen A. Woodrow-Lafield.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Woodrow-Lafield, K.A. An analysis of net immigration in census coverage evaluation. Popul Res Policy Rev 14, 173–204 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01074457

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01074457

Key words

Search

Navigation