Journal of Quantitative Criminology

, Volume 6, Issue 3, pp 293–314 | Cite as

Estimating the size of criminal populations

  • D. Kim Rossmo
  • Rick Routledge
Article

Abstract

The estimation of total population size for various phenomena of crime is an important factor critical for criminal justice policy formulation and criminological theory development. In this paper, methods are discussed for estimating the size of a criminal population from police records. Capture-recapture analysis techniques, borrowed from the biological sciences, are used to predict the size of population for migrating (or fleeing) fugitives and for street prostitutes. Heterogeneity and behavioral responses to previous police encounters are identified as major complicating factors. The basic problem is that the police records are virtually unaffected by a potentially large pool of cryptic criminals. It is shown how independently collected auxiliary data can address this problem.

Key words

criminal population estimation capture-recapture analysis migrating/fleeing populations street prostitutes warrants 

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Copyright information

© Plenum Publishing Corporation 1990

Authors and Affiliations

  • D. Kim Rossmo
    • 1
    • 2
  • Rick Routledge
    • 3
  1. 1.School of CriminologySimon Fraser UniversityBurnabyCanada
  2. 2.Vancouver Police DepartmentVancouverCanada
  3. 3.Department of Mathematics and Statistics and Department of Biological SciencesSimon Fraser UniversityBurnabyCanada
  4. 4.VancouverCanada

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