Abstract
The University of Pennsylvania study of delinquency in a Philadelphia birth cohort has been described byNewsweek as “perhaps the most influential piece of criminal justice research in the last decade” (March 23, 1981). Many have construed the findings as showing that, if imprisonment were focused on the minority of offenders with especially bad “prognoses,” the rate of crime could be reduced substantially. But others have taken the opposite view that the cohort data, far from endorsing such a “selective incapacitation” strategy, might actually provide strong evidence that such an approach is futile. Through some further analyses of the Philadelphia data, we attempt to clarify their policy implications.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Avi-Itzhak, B., and Shinnar, R. (1973). Quantitative models in crime control.J. Crim. Just. 1: 185–217.
Barnett, A. (1981). The deterrent effect of capital punishment: A test of some recent studies.Oper. Res. 29: 346–370.
Barnett, A. (1982). An underestimated threat to multiple regression analyses used in job discrimination cases.Indust. Relat. Law J. 5: 156–173.
Blumstein, A., and Moitra, S. (1980). The identification of “career criminals” from “chronic offenders” in a cohort.Law Policy Q. 2: 321–334.
Blumstein, A., and Nagin, D. (1978). On the optimum use of incarceration for crime control.Oper. Res. 26: 381–405.
Chaiken, J., and Chaiken, M. (1982).Varieties of Criminal Behavior, RAND Report R-2814-NIJ.
Chaiken, J., and Rolph, J. (1980). Selective incapacitation strategies based on estimated crime rates.Oper. Res. 28: 1259–1274.
Clarke, S. (1974). Getting 'em Out of Circulation: Does incarceration of juvenile offenders reduce crime?J. Crim. Law Criminol. 65: 528–535.
Cohen, J. (1983). Incapacitation as a strategy for crime control: Possibilities and pitfalls. InCrime and Justice: An Annual Review of Research, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
Figlio, R. (1981). Delinquency careers as a simple Markov process. In Fox, J. (ed.),Models in Quantitative Criminology, Academic Press, New York, pp. 25–37.
Greenwood, P. (1982).Selective Incapacitation, RAND Report R-2815-NIJ.
Maltz, M., and Pollock, S. (1980). Artificial inflation of a delinquency rate by a selection artifact.Oper. Res. 28: 547–559.
Sellin, T., and Wolfgang, M. (1964).The Measurement of Delinquency, Wiley & Sons, New York.
Tierney, L. (1983). A selective artifact in delinquency data revisited.Oper. Res. 31: 852–865.
Von Hirsch, A. (1976).Doing Justice: The Choice of Punishments, Hill and Wang, New York.
Wolfgang, M., Sellin, T., and Figlio, R. (1972).Delinquency in a Birth Cohort, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Barnett, A., Lofaso, A.J. Selective incapacitation and the Philadelphia cohort data. J Quant Criminol 1, 3–36 (1985). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01065247
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01065247