Skip to main content

A generalized probabilistic theory of causal relevance

Abstract

I advance a new theory of causal relevance, according to which causal claims convey information about conditional probability functions. This theory is motivated by the problem of disjunctive factors, which haunts existing probabilistic theories of causation. After some introductory remarks, I present in Section 3 a sketch of Eells's (1991) probabilistic theory of causation, which provides the framework for much of the discussion. Section 4 explains how the problem of disjunctive factors arises within this framework. After rejecting three proposed solutions, I offer in Section 6 a new approach to causation that avoids the problem. Decision-theoretic considerations also support the new approach. Section 8 develops the consequences of the new theory for causal explanation. The resulting theory of causal explanation incorporates the new insights while respecting important work on scientific explanation by Salmon (1971), Railton (1981), and Humphreys (1989). My conclusions are enumerated in Section 9.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

References

  • Cartwright, N.: 1979, ‘Causal Laws and Effective Strategies’,Noûs 13, 419–37, reprinted with additions in Cartwright (1983).

    Google Scholar 

  • Cartwright, N.: 1983,How the Laws of Physics Lie, Clarendon Press, Oxford.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dupré, J.: 1984, ‘Probabilistic Causality Emancipated’, in P. A. French, T. E. Uehling, H. K. Wettstein (eds.),Midwest Studies in Philosophy IX: Causation and Causal Theories, University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis, pp. 169–75.

    Google Scholar 

  • Eells, E.: 1988, ‘Probabilistic Causal Interaction and Disjunctive Causal Factors’, in Fetzer (1988, pp. 189–209).

  • Eells, E.: 1991,Probabilistic Causality, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fetzer, J. H. (ed.): 1988,Probability and Causality: Essays In Honor of Wesley C. Salmon, D. Reidel, Dordrecht.

    Google Scholar 

  • Glymour, C.: 1986, ‘Statistics and Metaphysics’,Journal of the American Statistical Association 81, 964–66, comment on Holland (1986).

    Google Scholar 

  • Good, I. J.: 1961–1962, ‘A Causal Calculus I–II’,British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 11, 305–18;12, 43–51.

    Google Scholar 

  • Holland, P. W.: 1986, ‘Statistics and Causal Inference’,Journal of the American Statistical Association 81, 945–60.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hughes, R. I. G.: 1989,The Structure and Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

    Google Scholar 

  • Humphreys, P.: 1989,The Chances of Explanation: Causal Explanations in the Social Medical, and Physical Sciences, Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lewis, D. K.: 1973, ‘Causation’,Journal of Philosophy 70, 556–67, reprinted with post-scripts in Lewis (1986a).

    Google Scholar 

  • Lewis, D. K.: 1986a,Philosophical Papers, Volume II, Oxford University Press, Oxford.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lewis, D. K.: 1986b, ‘Postscripts to “Causation”’, in Lewis (1986a), pp. 172–213.

  • Mackie, J. L.: 1974,The Cement of the Universe, Clarendon Press, Oxford.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mellor, D. H.: 1988, ‘On Raising the Chances of Effects’, in Fetzer (1988, pp. 229–39).

  • Nute, D.: 1984, ‘Conditional Logic’, in D. Gabbay and F. Guenthner (eds.),Handbook of Philosophical Logic, D. Reidel, Dordrecht, pp. 387–439.

    Google Scholar 

  • Papineau, D.: 1989, ‘Pure, Mixed, and Spurious Probabilities and their Significance for a Reductionist Theory of Causation’, in P. Kitcher and W. Salmon (eds.),Scientific Explanation, University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis, pp. 307–48.

    Google Scholar 

  • Railton, P.: 1981, ‘Probability, Explanation, and Information’,Synthese 48, 233–56.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rubin, D. B.: 1974, ‘Estimating Causal Effects of Treatments in Randomized and Nonrandomized Studies’,Journal of Educational Psychology 66, 688–701.

    Google Scholar 

  • Salmon, W. C.: 1971, ‘Statistical Explanation’, in W. C. Salmon, J. G. Greeno and R. C. Jeffrey (eds.),Statistical Explanation and Statistical Relevance, University of Pittsburgh Press, Pittsburgh, pp. 29–87.

    Google Scholar 

  • Skyrms, B.: 1980,Causal Necessity: A Pragmatic Investigation of the Necessity of Laws, Yale University Press, New Haven.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sober, E.: 1984,The Nature of Selection, MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

    Google Scholar 

  • Suppes, P.: 1970,A Probabilistic Theory of Causality, North-Holland, Amsterdam.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Additional information

I would like to thank Nuel Belnap, John Earman, Richard Gale, Paul Humphreys, Satish Iyengar, Wes Salmon, and two anonymous referees for comments and discussion. I am also indebted to the members of an audience at the Center for Philosophy of Science at the University of Pittsburgh, where some of the ideas contained in this paper were presented.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Hitchcock, C.R. A generalized probabilistic theory of causal relevance. Synthese 97, 335–364 (1993). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01064073

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01064073

Keywords

  • Probabilistic Theory
  • Conditional Probability
  • Probability Function
  • Causal Explanation
  • Scientific Explanation