Abstract
The research reported in this paper is concerned with the functional relation between the probability that an individual offender will recidivate and the time that the offender has served in prison as a consequence of the offense. Theory suggests that time served affects recidivism through both specific deterrent and social bonding effects. The former is hypothesized to produce an inverse relation between recidivism and time served; the latter, a direct relation. The paper reviews the literature concerning these two theoretical relations. The review provides the basis for the establishment of a multiequation model whose principal result is to suggest that, more than likely, the recidivism/time served relation is a U-shaped function. The empirical model used to evaluate the hypothesis that the function is U-shaped uses the occurrence of a new arrest as its dependent variable. The model is estimated using OLS and LOGIT procedures. The data used for estimation relate to 1425 prisoners released from the North Carolina prison system in 1980. Recidivistic outcomes are measured at the end of the first and second years subsequent to their release. The research is unique in that it represents the first effort to synthesize the economist's specific deterrence model with the sociologist's social bonding model. The theory provides an explanation for the failure of past empirical work to establish a relation between time served and recidivism. The research is also unique in its a priori assumption of a U-shaped behavioral relation and its attempt to measure that particular relation. The data support the hypothesis that time served affects postprison recidivism rates and that the direction of the effect varies by offense class.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Azrin, N. H., and Holz, W. C. (1966). Punishment. In Honig, W. K. (ed.),Operant Behavior, Appleton, New York, pp. 380–447.
Babst, D. V., and Mannering, J. W. (1965). Probation versus imprisonment for similar types of offenders: A comparison by subsequent violations.J. Res. Crime Delinq. 2(2): 60–71.
Babst, D. V., Koval, M., and Neithercutt, M. (1972). Relationship of time served to parole outcome for different classifications of burglars based on males paroled in fifty jurisdictions in 1968 and 1969.J. Res. Crime Delinq. 9: 99–116.
Babst, D. V., Moseley, W. H., Schmeidler, J., Neithercutt, M. G., and Koval, M. (1976). Assessing length of institutionalization in relation to parole outcome—A study of drug users paroled in the United States in 1968 and 1969.Criminology 14(1): 41–54.
Bartell, T., and Winfree, L. T., Jr. (1977). Recidivistic impacts of different sentencing practices for burglary offenders.Criminology 15(3): 387–395.
Beck, A. J., and Shipley, B. E. (1987). Recidivism of young parolees. United States Bureau of Justice Statistics,Special Report, May.
Beck, J. L., and Hoffman, P. B. (1976). Time served and release performance: A research note.J. Res. Crime Delinq. 13: 127–132.
Berecochea, J. E., Jaman, D. R., and Jones, W. A. (1973).Time Served in Prison and Parole Outcome: An Experimental Study, Research Report No. 49, Research Division, California Department of Corrections (Oct.).
Bernsten, K., and Christiansen, K. O. (1965). A resocialization experiment with short-term offenders.Scand. Stud. Criminol. 1: 35–39.
Block, M. K., and Heineke, J. M. (1975). A labor theoretic analysis of the criminal choice.Am. Econ. Rev. 65(3): 314–325.
Butcher, B. A. (1975).The Effectiveness of Criminal Justice Sanction Strategies in the Deterrence of Drug Offenders, Ph.D. dissertation, University of Southern California, Los Angeles.
California Adult Authority, Division of Parole (1956). Special intensive parole unit. Phase I: Fifteen man caseload. Mimeo.
Cohen, B. J. (1965).Differential Correctional Treatment Programs and Modification of Self Image, Ph.D. dissertation, Michigan State University, East Lansing.
Ehrlich, I. (1973). Participation in illegitimate activities: An economic analysis. In Becker, G. S., and Landes, W. M. (eds.),Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York, pp. 68–134.
Ekland-Olson, S., Kelly, W. R., and Supancic, M. (1983). Sanction severity, feedback, and deterrence. In Whitaker, G. P., and Phillips, C. D. (eds.),Evaluating Performance of Criminal Justice Agencies, Sage, Beverly Hills, Calif., pp. 129–164.
Empey, L., and Lubeck, S. (1971).The Silverlake Experiment: Testing Delinquency Theory and Community Intervention, Aldine, Chicago.
Garrity, D. L. (1956).The Effects of Length of Incarceration upon Parole Adjustment and Estimation of Optimum Sentence, Ph.D. dissertation, University of Washington, Seattle.
Glaser, D. (1964).The Effectiveness of a Prison and Parole System, Bobbs-Merrill, New York.
Gold, M., and Williams, J. (1969). National study of the aftermath of apprehension.Prospectus 3: 3–12.
Gottfredson, D., Neithercutt, M., Nuffield, J., and O'Leary, V. (1973).Four Thousand Lifetimes: A Study of Time Served and Parole Outcomes, NCCD, Davis, Calif.
Gottfredson, D., Gottfredson, M. R., and Garofolo, J. (1977). Time served in prison and parole outcomes among parolee risk categories.J. Crim. Just. 5(1): 1–12.
Heineke, J. M. (1978). Economic models of criminal behavior: An overview. In Heineke, J. M. (ed.),Economic Models of Criminal Behavior, North-Holland, Amsterdam, pp. 1–33.
Hirshi, T. (1969).The Causes of Delinquency, University of California Press, Berkeley.
Jaman, D. R. (1968).Parole Outcome and Time Served to First Release, Research Division, California Department of Corrections.
Jaman, D. R. (1974).Sentences and Offenses—One or More than One: Time Served and Parole Outcome, California Department of Corrections, Research Division.
Jaman, D. R., and Rickover, R. (1969).A Study of Parole Outcome as a Function of Time Served, Research Division, California Department of Corrections.
Jaman, D. R., Bennett, L. A., and Berecochea, J. E. (1974).Early Discharge from Parole: Policy, Practice, and Outcome, Research Division, California Department of Corrections (Apr.).
James, J. E. (1976). The influence of duration on the effects of time-out from speaking.J. Speech Hearing Res. 19: 205–215.
Murray, C. A. (1980).Days in Court—Patterns of Juvenile Court Response and Their Impact on Arrest Rates, American Institutes for Research, Washington, D.C. (mimeo).
Murray, C. A., and Cox, L. A. (1979).Beyond Probation—Juvenile Corrections and the Chronic Delinquent, Sage Publications, Beverley Hills, Calif.
Narloch, R. P., Adams, S., and Jenkins, K. J. (1959). Characteristics and parole performance of California Youth Authority early releases.Research Report No. 7. California Youth Authority (mimeo).
Orsagh, T., and Marsden, M. E. (1987). Inmates + appropriate programs=effective rehabilitation.Correct. Today 40(5): 174–180.
Orsagh, T., and Witte, A. D. (1981). Economic status and crime: Implications for offender rehabilitation.J. Crim. Law Criminol. 72: 1055–1071.
Petersilia, J., Greenwood, P. W., and Lavin, M. (1977).Criminal Careers of Habitual Felons, Rand Report No. R-2144-DOJ, Rand Corp., Santa Monica, Calif.
Phillips, C. D., McCleary, B. W., and Dinitz, S. (1983). The special deterrent effect of incarceration. In Whitaker, G. P., and Phillips, C. D. (eds.),Evaluating Performance of Criminal Justice Agencies, Sage, Beverly Hills, Calif., pp. 237–264.
Rice, W. E. (1975).Recidivism—A Multivariate Explanation of the Length of Time Recidivists Remained Free Before Returning to Prison Incarcerations, Ph.D. dissertation, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill.
Serrill, M. S. (1975). Special report on deinstitutionalization in Massachusetts.Correct. Mag. 11(2): 57.
Shoham, S., and Sandberg M. (1964). Suspended sentences in Israel: An evaluation of the preventive efficacy of prospective imprisonment.Crime Delinq. 10(1): 74–83.
Thornberry, T. (1971).Punishment and Crime: The Effect of Legal Dispositions on Subsequent Criminal Behavior, Ph.D. dissertation, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia.
Van Houten, E. (1983). Punishment: From the Animal Laboratory to the Applied Setting. In Axelrod, S., and Apsche, J. (eds.),The Effects of Punishment on Human Behavior, Academic Press, New York, pp. 13–40.
Walters, G. C., and Grusec, J. E. (1977).Punishment, Freeman, San Francisco.
Wilkins, L. T. (1969).Evaluation of Penal Measures, Random House, New York.
Williams, J., and Gold, M. (1970). From delinquent behavior to official delinquency.Soc. Problems 20(Fall): 209–229.
Wilson, J. Q., and Hernstein, R. J. (1985).Crime and Human Nature, Simon and Schuster, New York.
Wolfgang, M., Figlio, R., and Sellin, T. (1972).Delinquency in a Birth Cohort, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Orsagh, T., Chen, J.R. The effect of time served on recidivism: An interdisciplinary theory. J Quant Criminol 4, 155–171 (1988). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01062871
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01062871