Summary
This research is aimed at exploring real-data model simulations of two severe rainstorms and gaining insight into the predictability of mesoscale flood environment based on currently available observations and modeling techniques. The two events are the Rapid City, SD flood of 10 June 1972 and the Big Thompson, CO flood of 31 July 1976. In both cases the synoptic settings prior to the onset of heavy precipitation are quite similar and may be characterized as baroclinically inactive. The meteorological processes triggering the outbreak of the flash floods are carefully examined.
For the Big Thompson case, the models properly delineated the mesoscale flood environment, but for the Rapid City case, the models failed to produce any flood conditions despite the well-simulated large-scale circulation. The uneven performance of the models could be attributed to the difference in the triggering mechanisms between the two events. In the Big Thompson case, the excessive rainfall was mainly correlated with a surface frontal disturbance, while in the Rapid City case, the onset of the flash flood was caused by a short-wave trough in the lower troposphere.
In summer low-level short-wave disturbances frequently develop over the arid highlands in the western United States. The genesis of these weak systems is not well understood and deserves further study so as to reveal their role in organizing mesoscale rainstorms over the rugged terrain.
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Chang, C.B., Perkey, D.J. Numerical simulations of mesoscale flood environment. Meteorl. Atmos. Phys. 55, 17–32 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01029599
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01029599