Abstract
This paper presents two perspectives on a fundamental issue of elections as mechanisms of democratic accountability. One is the interelection floating voter hypothesis, which implies that it is the least informed segment of the electorate that contributes most to electoral change. The second perspective is from V. O. Key's argument that vote switching is rooted in rational policy concerns. A direct test of Key's formulation of the problem on the Reagan election victories of 1980 and 1984 adds to the evidence supporting Key's perspective. The reasons why some voters hold firm to particular parties and candidates while others switch support is well explained by their different positions on matters of party, policies, and judgments of the candidates. Vote switching is not simply the by-product of an ill-informed segment of the electorate responding to its meager grasp of the short-term stimuli of a campaign. Vote switchers appear to judge the policies and the performance of an incumbent against their best estimates of these qualities in the competing candidate. The data are from the 1980 and 1984 CBS/New York Times exit polls.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abramson, Paul R., Aldrich, John H., and Rohde, David W. (1982).Change and Continuity in the 1980 Elections, rev. ed. Washington, D.C.: CQ Press.
Asher, Herbert B. (1984). Presidential Elections and American Politics: Voters, Candidates, and Campaigns Since 1952. 3rd ed. Homewood, Ill.: Dorsey Press.
Benewick, R. J. et al. (1969). The floating voter and the liberal view of representation.Political Studies 2:177–195.
Berelson, Bernard R., Lazarsfeld, Paul F. and McPhee, William N. (1954). Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Boyd, Richard W. (1983). Electoral change in America: measuring swing with recall questions. Paper presented at the 1983 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, The Palmer House, September 1–4.
Boyd, Richard W. (1985). Electoral change in the United States and Great Britain.British Journal of Political Science 15(October):517–528.
Butler, David and Stokes, Donald (1969). Political Change in Britain: Forces Shaping Electoral Choice. New York: St. Martin's.
Converse, Philip E. (1966). Information flow and the stability of partisan attitudes. In Angus Campbell, et al.,Elections and the Political Order. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
Daudt, H. (1961).Floating Voters and the Floating Vote: A Critical Analysis of American and English Election Studies. Leiden, Holland: H. E. Stenfert Kroese N. V.
Downs, Anthony (1956).An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper & Row.
Dreyer, Edward C. (1971–72). Media use and electoral choices: some political consequences of information exposure.Public Opinion Quarterly 35(Winter):544–553.
Himmelweit, Hilde T., et al. (1981).How Voters Decide: A Longitudinal Study of Political Attitudes and Voting Extending Over Fifteen Years. London: Academic Press.
Janowitz, Morris, and Marvick, Dwaine (1956). Competitive pressure and democratic consent: an interpretation of the 1952 presidential election. Ann Arbor: Institute of Public Administration, University of Michigan.
Kelley, Stanley, Jr. (1983).Interpreting Elections. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Key, V. O., Jr. (1966).The Responsible Electorate: Rationality in Presidential Voting 1935–1960. Cambridge: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.
Kinder, Donald R., and Kiewiet, D. Roderick (1981). Sociotropic politics: the American case.British Journal of Political Science 11(April):129–161.
Kirkpatrick, Samuel A., and Jones, Melvin E. (1974). Issue publics and the electoral system: the role of issues in electoral change. In Allen R. Wilcox (ed.),Public Opinion and Political Attitudes. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
Lazarsfeld, Paul F., Berelson, Bernard and Gaudet, Hazel (1948). The people's choice: how the voter makes up his mind in a presidential campaign. New York: Columbia University Press.
Mansbridge, Jane J. (1985). Myth and reality: the ERA and the gender gap in the 1980 election.Public Opinion Quarterly 49 (Summer):164–178.
Miller, Arthur H., and Wattenberg, Martin P. (1985). Throwing the rascals out: policy and performance evaluations of presidential candidates.American Political Science Review 79(June):359–372.
Miller, Warren E., and Shanks, J. Merrill (1982). Policy directions and presidential leadership: alternative interpretations of the 1980 presidential elections.British Journal of political science 12(July):299–355.
Milne, R. S., and Mackenzie, H. C. (1954). Straight fight: a study of voting behaviour in the constituency of Bristol north east at the general election of 1951. London: The Hansard Society for Parliamentary Government.
Milne, R. S., and Mackenzie, H. C. (1958). Marginal seat, 1955: a study of voting behaviour in the constituency of Bristol North East at the general election of 1955. London: The Hansard Society for Parliamentary Government.
Natchez, Peter B., and Bupp, Irvin C. (1968). Candidates, Issues, and Voters.Public Policy 17:409–437.
Norusis, Marija J. (1985).SPSS x Advanced Statistics Guide. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Pedersen, Johannes (1978). Elections and the mobilization of popular support.American Journal of Political Science 22(February):18–30.
Pomper, Marlene Michels, ed. (1985).The Election of 1984: Reports and Interpretations. Chatham, N.J.: Chatham House.
Public Opinion (1981). A conversation with the President's pollsters—Patrick Caddell and Richard Wirthlin, 3(December/January), 2–12, 63–64.
RePass, David E. (1971). Issue salience and party choice.American Political Science Review 65(June):389–400.
Schneider, William (1981). The November 4 vote for president: what did it mean? In Austin Ranney, (ed.),The American Elections of 1980. Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute.
Shively, W. Phillips (1982). The electoral impact of party loyalists and the “floating vote”: a new measure and a new perspective.Journal of Politics 44(August):679–691.
Weir, Blair T. (1975). The distortion of voter recall.American Journal of Political Science 19(February):53–62.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Boyd, R.W. Electoral change and the floating voter: The reagan elections. Polit Behav 8, 230–244 (1986). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01002099
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01002099