Skip to main content
Log in

Fundamental equilibrium exchange rates and exchange rate dynamics

  • Published:
Open Economies Review Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper examines whether there is a tendency for actual exchange rates to return to their fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) when the latter are estimated based on popular exchange rate models. Co-integration tests and unit root tests are applied. There is little evidence that the exchange rates of Japan and Germany have a reversion to the purchasing-power-parity (PPP) rates or Williamson's FEERs or the underlying external and internal balance (UEI) FEERs.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Adler, Michael and Bruce Lehman (1983) “Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run,”Journal of Finance 38, 1471–1478.

    Google Scholar 

  • Artus, Jacques R. and Anne K. McGuirk (1981) “A Revised Version of the Multilateral Exchange Rate Model,”International Monetary Fund Staff Papers 28, 275–309.

    Google Scholar 

  • Barrell, Ray and Simon Wren-Lewis (1989) “Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates for the G-7,” CEPR Discussion Paper No. 323.

  • Corbae, Dean and Sam Ouliaris (1988) “Co-integration and Tests of Purchasing Power Parity,”The Review of Economics and Statistics 70, 508–511.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dickey, David A. and Wayne A. Fuller (1981) “The Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root,”Econometrica 49, 1057–1072.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dornbusch, Rudiger (1976) “Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics,”Journal of Political Economy 84, 1161–1176.

    Google Scholar 

  • Edison, Hali J. (1987) “Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run: A Test of the Dollar-Pound Exchange Rate, 1890–1978,”Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 19, 376–387.

    Google Scholar 

  • Enders, Walter (1988) “ARIMA and Co-integration Tests of PPP under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes,”Review of Economics and Statistics 70, 504–508.

    Google Scholar 

  • Engle, Robert and C.W.J. Granger (1987) “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,”Econometrica 55, 251–276.

    Google Scholar 

  • Frenkel, Jacob A. (1981) “Flexible Exchange Rates, Prices and the Role of News,”Journal of Political Economy 89, 665–705.

    Google Scholar 

  • Frenkei, Jacob A. and Morris Goldstein (1986) “A Guide to Target Zones,”International Monetary Fund Staff Papers 33, 633–670.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fuller, Wayne A. (1976)Introduction to Statistical Time Series. New York: John Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Granger, C.W.J. (1986) “Developments in the Study of Co-integrated Economic Variables,”Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 48, 213–228.

    Google Scholar 

  • Huizinga, John (1987) “An Empirical Investigation of the Long-Run Behavior of Real Exchange Rates,”Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 27, 149–214.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kim, Yoonbai (1990) “Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run: A Co-integration Approach,”Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 22, 348–357.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lothian, James R. (1990) “A Century Plus of Japanese Exchange Rate Behavior,”Japan and the World Economy 2, 47–70.

    Google Scholar 

  • McKinnon, Ronald I. (1988) “Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies for International Financial Stability: A Proposal,”Journal of Economic Perspectives 2, 83–103.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ohno, Kenichi (1987) “Estimating Purchasing Power Parities in the 1970s and 80s: The Price Pressure Approach,” Working Paper, Stanford University.

  • Perron, Pierre (1988) “Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Further Evidence from a New Approach,”Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 12, 297–332.

    Google Scholar 

  • Phillips, Peter C.B. and Pierre Perron (1988) “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression,”Biometrika 75, 335–346.

    Google Scholar 

  • Roli, Richard (1979) Violations of Purchasing Power Parity and Their Implications for Efficient International Commodity Markets.” in M. Sarnat and G.P. Szego (eds),International Finance and Trade 1, Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, pp. 345–361.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stockman, Alan C. (1987) “The Equilibrium Approach to Exchange Rates”,Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, pp. 12–30.

  • Williamson, John (1985)The Exchange Rate System, Policy Analysis in international Economics 5, Institute for International Economics, Washington D.C.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Zhou, S. Fundamental equilibrium exchange rates and exchange rate dynamics. Open Econ Rev 4, 189–209 (1993). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01000519

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01000519

Key words

Navigation