Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Citizen uncertainty and turnout in the 1980 presidential campaign

  • Published:
Political Behavior Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

In this paper the concept of uncertainty regarding for whom a citizen should vote is developed and is shown to be an important component of rational choice models of decision making. Uncertainty is measured using the 7-point issue scales from the 1980 Center for Political Studies survey. A nonrecursive, simultaneous-equation model of the determinants of uncertainty and turnout is developed and is estimated using a “modified” two-stage least squares technique. Among other results, we find that uncertainty is the most important determinant of whether or not citizens vote—stronger than civic duty, education, or strength of partisanship.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abramson, Paul R., and John H. Aldrich (1982). “The Decline of Electoral Participation in America.”American Political Science Review 76:502–521.

    Google Scholar 

  • Aldrich, John H. (1975a). “Candidate Support Functions in the 1968 Election: An Empirical Application of the Spatial Model.”Public Choice 22:1–22.

    Google Scholar 

  • Aldrich, John H. (1975b). “Some Problems in Testing Two Rational Models of Participation.”American Journal of Political Science 19:713–733.

    Google Scholar 

  • Aldrich, John, and Charles F. Cnudde (1975). “Probing the Bounds of Conventional Wisdom: A Comparison of Regression, Probit, and Discriminant Analysis.”American Journal of Political Science 19:571–608.

    Google Scholar 

  • Asher, Herbert (1980).Presidential Elections and American Politics (rev. ed.). Homewood, Illinois: The Dorsey Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Atkin, Charles (1973). “Instrumental Utilities and Information Seeking.” In Peter Clarke (ed.),New Models for Mass Communication Research. Beverly Hills: Sage.

    Google Scholar 

  • Campbell, Angus, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller, and Donald E. Stokes (1960).The American Voter. New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carmines, Edward G., and James A. Stimson (1980). “The two Faces of Issue Voting.”American Political Science Review 74:78–91.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cassel, Carol A., and David B. Hill (1981). “Explanations of Turnout Decline: A Multivariate Test.”American Politics Quarterly 9:181–196.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chaffee, Steven H., Keith R. Stamm, Jose L. Guerrero, and Leonard P. Tipton (1969). “Experiments on Cognitive Discrepancies and Communication.”Journalism Monographs 14:1–85.

    Google Scholar 

  • Davis, Dwight F., and Michael M. Gant (1981). “Mental Economy and Voter Rationality: The Informed Citizen Problem in Voting Research.” Prepared for delivery at the 1981 Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association.

  • Deutsch, Morton, and Robert M. Krauss (1965).Theories of Social Psychology. New York: Basic Books.

    Google Scholar 

  • Donohew, Lewis, and Leonard Tipton (1973). “A Conceptual Model of Information Seeking, Avoiding, and Processing.” In Peter Clarke (ed.),New Models for Mass Communication research. Beverly Hills: Sage.

    Google Scholar 

  • Downs, Anthony (1957).An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper Row.

    Google Scholar 

  • Enelow, James, and Melvin J. Hinich (1981). “A New Approach to Voter Uncertainty in the Downsian Spatial Model.”American Journal of Political Science 25:483–493.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ferejohn, John A., and Morris P. Fiorina (1974). “The Paradox of Not Voting: A Decision Theoretic Analysis.”American Political Science Review 68:525–546.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ferejohn, John A., and Morris A. Fiorina (1975). “Closeness Counts Only in Horseshoes and Dancing.”American Political Science Review 69:920–928.

    Google Scholar 

  • Flanigan, William H., and Nancy H. Zingale (1979).Political Behavior of the American Electorate (4th ed.). Boston: Allyn and Bacon.

    Google Scholar 

  • Frolich, Norman, Joe A. Oppenheimer, Jeffrey Smith, and Oran R. Young (1978). “A Test of Downsian Voter Rationality: 1964 Presidential Voting.”American Political Science Review 72:178–197.

    Google Scholar 

  • Harney, Russel F., and Vernon A. Stone (1968–69). “Television and Newspaper Front Page Coverage of a Major News Story.”Journal of Broadcasting 13:181–188.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kelley, Stanley, Jr., and Thad W. Mirer (1974). “The Simple Act of Voting.”American Political Science Review 68:572–591.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kmenta, Jan (1971).Elements of Econometrics. New York: Macmillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kessel, John H. (1972). “Comment: The Issues in Issue Voting.”American Political Science Review 66:459–465.

    Google Scholar 

  • MacNeil, Robert (1968).The People Machine. New York: Harper & Row.

    Google Scholar 

  • Maller, Charles D. (1977). “The Estimation of Simultaneous Probability Models.”Econometrica 45:1717–1722.

    Google Scholar 

  • Markus, Gregory B., and Philip E. Converse (1979). “A Dynamic Simultaneous Equation Model of Electoral Choice.American Political Science Review 73:1055–1070.

    Google Scholar 

  • McKelvey, Richard D., and William Zavoina (1975). “A Statistical Model for the Analysis of Ordinal Level Dependent Variables.”Journal of Mathematical Sociology 4:103–120.

    Google Scholar 

  • Miller, Arthur H., Warren E. Miller, Alden S. Raine, and Thad A. Brown (1976). “A Majority Party in Disarray: Policy Polarization in the 1972 Election.”American Political Science Review 70:753–778.

    Google Scholar 

  • O'Keefe, M. Timothy, and Kenneth G. Sheinkopf (1974). “The Voter Decides: Candidate Image or Campaign Issues?”Journal of Broadcasting 18:403–412.

    Google Scholar 

  • Page, Benjamin I. (1977). “Elections and Social Choice: The State of the Evidence.”American Journal of Political Science 21:639–668.

    Google Scholar 

  • Page, Benjamin I., and Calvin C. Jones (1979). “Reciprocal Effects of Policy Preferences, Party Loyalties, and the Vote.”American Political Science Review 73:1071–1089.

    Google Scholar 

  • Patterson, Thomas E., and Robert D. McClure (1976).The Unseeing Eye: The Myth of Television Power in National Politics. New York: G. P. Putnam's Sons.

    Google Scholar 

  • Popkin, Samuel, John M. Gorman, Charles Phillips, and Jeffrey A. Smith (1976). “Comment: What Have You Done for Me Lately?: Toward an Investment Theory of Voting.”Americn Political Science Review 70:779–805.

    Google Scholar 

  • Riker, William H., and Peter C. Ordeshook (1968). “A Theory of the Calculus of Voting.”American Political Science Review 62:25–42.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shaffer, Stephen D. (1981). “A Multivariate Explanation of Decreasing Turnout in Presidential Elections.”American Journal of Political Science 25:68–95.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shepsle, Kenneth A. (1972). “The Strategy of Ambiguity: Uncertainty and Electoral Competition.”American Political Science Review 66:25–42.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shively, W. Phillips (1979). “The Development of Party Identification Among Adults: Exploration of a Functional Model.”American Political Science Review 73:1039–1054.

    Google Scholar 

  • Simon, Herbert A. (1957).Models of Man. New York: Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Simon, Herbert A. (1959). “Theories of Decision-making in Economic and Behavioral Science.”American Economic Review 49:253–283.

    Google Scholar 

  • Simon, Herbert A. (1961).Administrative Behavior. New York: Macmillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tipton, Leonard P. (1970). “Effects of Writing Tasks on Utility of Information and Order of Seeking.”Journalism Quarterly 47:309–317.

    Google Scholar 

  • Underwood, Geoffrey (ed.) (1978).Strategies of Information Processing. London: Academic Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zajonc, Robert B. (1961). “The Concepts of Balance, Congruity and Dissonance.Public Opinion Quarterly 41:280–296.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Texas A&M University, USA

    Michael M. Gant

Authors
  1. Michael M. Gant
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Gant, M.M. Citizen uncertainty and turnout in the 1980 presidential campaign. Polit Behav 5, 257–275 (1983). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00988577

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00988577

Keywords

Search

Navigation