pure and applied geophysics

, Volume 149, Issue 1, pp 233–247 | Cite as

Earthquake prediction as a decision-making problem

  • G. M. Molchan


In this review we consider an interdisciplinary problem of earthquake prediction involving economics. This joint research aids in understanding the prediction problem as a whole and reveals additional requirements for seismostatistics. We formulate the problem as an optimal control problem: Prossessing the possibility to declare several types of alerts, it is necessary to find an optimal changing alert types; each successful prediction prevents a certain amount of losses; total expected losses are integrated over the semi-infinite time interval. The discount factor is included in the model. Algorithmic and exact solutions are indicated.

This paper is based on the recent results byMolchan (1990, 1991, 1992).

Key words

Earthquake prediction prediction objective prediction error diagram hazard function Bellman equation 


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Copyright information

© Birkhäuser Verlag 1997

Authors and Affiliations

  • G. M. Molchan
    • 1
  1. 1.International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical GeophysicsRussian Academy of SciencesMoscowRussian

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